Still a fight going now, volume is increasing slowly as well which is a good sign for the bulls. We can say now, the fractal is might not be in play anymore, because the drop out of that channel failed and those other 2 attempts (red circles) failed as well. As i mentioned yesterday, what looked like a typical Bart move (so making a push up but even even bigger push down) simply failed eventually. Because of this, i am starting to think that there might not be enough bears at the moment.
Alts are finally moving a bit as well, most made a dump and pump today back the the same levels again. Usually a move like this indicates a stop hunt to fill up long positions. With Bitcoin that keeps bumping against the resistance (consolidating against a resistance is usually a bullish sign). So bullish version is gaining strength, but don't get your hopes up to high, still very dangerous grounds here. A big dump can still easily happen, simply because volume is low and we all know how easily bears can take over and dump the market to trigger stops. Think everyone knows, the levels below 3950/3920 are piled up with stops now. So a push below those levels will trigger a sell wave.
But if the bulls are in control here, the same goes the other way. Think above 4020/4100 there are most likely a ton of stops as well. So if we do push through those levels, we could see a big short squeeze happen. I don't have a very good read on the sentiment, but all the info coming to me (from members, from TradingView and other sources), like almost everyone thinks a short play here is such an obvious play now. I think we all know by now, that when too many people look the same way, the market goes the other way. But as i said, i don't have a good read on that sentiment now. I used to read comment sections of other annalists here on TV as well to get that read, but i don't have the time anymore unfortunately.
To make things less complicated, the levels to watch are:
-) 3950 is probably already the max, maybe 3920. -) 4020 might do the trick already, but i would not feel safe until 4100ish breaks.
My bigger picture view is known, if you don't know it, than read some of my previous analysis. I think we are at an very important stage now. Because either we drop back down to the 3700/3400 zone with all the dangers that come with it. So maybe breaking the 3K or just move up again later on. Or, we are continuing the big ABC or the 5 wave structure we started since Dec and moving up to 4500 or even 5K+ prices. It will all depend on the volume we will see at the breakout. The higher the volume , the bigger the rally will be eventually.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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ETH might be a good guideline as well now. Seems there is a double bottom support now and at the moment moving against a resistance. A break of 140ish, would be an indication that bears are taking over again. Normally, after the pump it did today, should not even get close.
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New ETH analysis:
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New Litecoin analysis:
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Moving up again, decent buying now on Mex, but still not that big volume we need. There are a lot of big sell orders waiting, so needs much more than this to push through! OI is at a record 2019 level of 550 mil now as well, so there is a lot at stake now. A squeeze up can easily happen, since a lot of the OI was created below the 3900 level, so these people will start to cut their losses soon i think. So need more volume now, otherwise dont know if we drop to 4000 again or even lower
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Bears seem to have taken it over now the past 2 hours. With 4000ish being a support level. If that breaks, the second green should hold, otherwise the whole rally could be over already.
I am 99% sure we'll see 3200 and my PA strategy indicates 2400$ will be touched before we can even think of a bull run.
kardia
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@boleroking, they will never be satisfied. If it goes to 2400, they will only try to push it lower. The people behind this collapse aren't interested in helping Bitcoin to rise from the ashes. Their goal is to destroy it. But they will not succeed.
boleroking
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@rev214us, IF we reach 2400 we will perform a typical push down for institutional buy ins. A formation you see regularly in forex where a base is revisited after retail money showed a willingness to push a price to a certain direction. Institutional money pushes the price down back to the base and then uses retail to reach new heights.
It's seen often in forex. If we visit the untested base of 2400-2000$ and bounce we will see a new ath pretty "soon"
TradingShot
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I agree it is definitely a good sign for bulls. And in my opinion so is the long term support provided by the 0.5 F level.
BlurShines
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Thanks for the update David.... It's been surprising with how long this battle has been going on in such a small range. It indeed seems like there's not enough bearish or bullishness to actually move the needle. Will be interesting to see how big an effect it has on alt market once a move happens.
botje11
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@BlurShines, Your welcome :). Usually, at the highs (before dumps happen), we see much more volume and fighting happening. It feels like, instead of the bulls trying and trying and cant push through resistance and loose eventually, like it's the other way around now. Alts have to move up big if we do rally, otherwise it will be a short term rally.
Cryptonite_trader
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Nice chart, this is what im seeing
InvestingScope
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Higher Low on 1D so good level to buy on a short term horizon. We would like however to share a much longer term study, which indicates how Bitcoin's price is achieving price stability. Would love to read your opinion on this David:
Coinamic
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I’ve been calling this drop since 3 days ago, when all the “experts” were fully bullish.