CoolHandWillick

Bull Market? Ifs, buts and maybes. TA

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Here I’ll provide my insight into what I think it would take for us to enter into a bull market.

On the 10-6-18, bitcoin broke major support at about 7100, which isn’t surprising given that it coincided with a bearish ascending triangle the formed just after we broke support on the 0.236 fibonacci.

However, it seems that bitcoin has since printed several bullish reversal patterns.

Retracement to the 0 fib support level - right where the bulls want bitcoin to bottom out.
The formation of a mini double bottom right on the 0 fib retracement.
The formation of a mini inverse head and shoulders , which is playing out on our potential bottom.

To take us back into a bull market, we are going to need to hold the inverse head and shoulders pattern, and we need to see the price retrace above the 0.236. This will be difficult because it will require that we not only punch through resistance on the 0.236, but we are also going to have to break through our massive line of resistance that has formed through the last two ABC corrections.

The fundamentals and the technicals could line up, and we may see these bullish patterns validated IF the SEC approve a bitcoin ETF . If this occurs, we could see a break out of resistance above the 0.236 around the 10th of August, which would be extremely bullish .

Personally, this is all highly speculative and the fact of the matter is that we are in an overwhelmingly bearish market, and bitcoin has had low volume and has been exhibiting signs of weakness. Breaking the 0.236 is extremely bearish , and it would be naive to think that just because you want these mini patterns to be validated that they will. There’s no harm in protecting yourself and your capital by waiting for confirmation, which we’d get around the 10th of August, and would be signalled by a breakout above the 0.236 at around $7600.

Good luck

Comments

So...market looks bearish until further notice. Although the sentiment seems to start shifting to bullish due to the highly anticipated ETF news but I agree with you.
Thank you, Luke! your update is very much appreciated.
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@dracarys_, I'd probably say neutral. Personally, I'm all in.
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