Looking for some signs of a bottom & there are a few that are slowly developing.
We are on a red 6 with the T.D. sequential as can be seen on the chart above. The 7 opens right around now. I expect to get a full count to 9 with the 8 being a near perfect close above the 6th candle. (This week that just closed)
The is looking for a bottom and it may have found a temporary bottom for now. I expect a move upwards to move it out of oversold conditions but I also expect the move up to not pull us out of the current correction.
The GMMA (Guppy Multiple Moving Average) shown above shows extreme conditions of being oversold. One thing to note, since the correction started this the first time we have seen the faster moving EMA's cross fully below our slower moving EMA's in red.
The OBV (Above) is still higher than week of 3/26 low at $6,443, meaning if we look at the OBV like a sentiment indicator there is heavier buying at these support levels. However the 3 day and 1 day show a different story so I am just simply noting this.
The C.M.F. (Above) shows a tad of positive pressure & doesn't really align with the OBV view that there is heavier buying at these levels. For now I take this as a sign the bottom is close but not in.
Furthering my view that the bottom is not in is the ; I would like to see the find a complete bottom before I feel comfortable that this cool down/correction is over.
I am looking for longs to be stacked over this week to further enforce my opinion that this is not the bottom, as this happens I believe we see some moves to the dotted orange line (Chart is below) and potentially the pink line directly above it.
After that I expect a drop to the first range seen in the green and blue box below. From there I am not ruling out that as the bottom as I am seeing some decent signs that are characteristic of a bottom already. However I will approach that decision when we rest there and the market has more data around there.
As for now my outlook still remains the same from past ideas I have published, when the data changes I will adjust my viewpoint. I trade off of what I see, not what I am hoping for. See the idea I published from May 28th titled "Bitcoin Analysis: Weekly TK Cross & Full Trend Overview" for a cleaner overview of that price range.
Turning on the Heikin Ashi candles below to get a full view of our current trend, I don't believe this is a market who has found its bottom, it is much more reasonable to assume the 78% fib will be our ending point. Also note: We sit at the top of the Kumo on the weekly.
Anything below $4,000 I think we see some serious shifts in the market that are indicative of major manipulation. So far this entire correction seems natural in structure. I do believe it is possible to find a bottom before we ever dip below $5,000, but as of now this is what I see.
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On the 4 hour below, I am seeing some weakening here at resistance, I am expecting a drop to the hourly base line in pink (second chart below) before attempting a second test of resistance.
I expect the next weekly candle to open as a green 1 on the TD sequential on monday and then turn into a red 9 and close that way. (Below 6,450)
I am still under the belief the bottom is not quite in, any rallies I do not expect to last beyond a few days before continuing down. I will change my analysis if new data comes in, but as of now this is a minor rally to take us out of oversold levels before continuing down next week.
Longs/Shorts on Bitfinex
Heikin-Ashi Daily with perfected 9 setup.
The market is still stacking these longs.
Heikin Ashi Daily
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I am trading since Dec and learning TA along the way. I've been looking deeper into indicators in recent days and I think that most of them have flaws of varying degrees. The discrepancy that you see between them confirms the flaws in these indicators. As you observed, OBV and CMF are giving different pictures of the market. This leads to further confusion than clarification. I believe that OBV is a junk indicator! Chaikin's indicators are built upon an elegant idea and they work much better than competing indicators. It takes into account both price and volume (unlike RSI and OBV). Still, Chaikin's indicators can be slightly improved. Another good indicator that is missing in your TAs is Money Flow Index. It is basically RSI with volume factored in. I think MFI is better at detecting oversold/bought conditions than RSI. I have also made my own version of volume factored RSI a few days ago. Here u can see how it compares to RSI: