BTC USD correction is not over - 8000 levels still in cards

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Anyone who considered playing the bounce may have done alright, it overstretched my resistance areas quite far.


The 10500 range is also a strong resistance area , as you can see.

I would be careful here if you are still bullish on the bounce.
The RSI is still oversold on the 4H but on the 1H and 15min it is overbought.
Let's go ahead and zoom in on the 15min. Notice that volume has really picked up on that last drop with a lot of bullish interest, but bears are returning to the fray.

We are seeing higher highs and higher lows, but beware. We are already above the resistance area I just posted.(edited)
Stronger bullish volume here may send it as high as 11457, another strong resistance level that had a bear break of a 4H inside bar where I drew the yellow arrow

I don't anticipate this, but watch out for any Tether mass prints as the next resistance would be, you probably guessed it, at about 12595
I called the bearish divergence across crypto world several days before this correction. I'll be taking those signals more carefully from now on. While many traders have overconfidence, I seem to have the opposite problem!
Comment: BTC-USD Here we see that the 12 EMA collided with the price right where I expected there to be some resistance(edited)

We saw a bull break of the most recent 4H inside bar on rising bullish volume as well. Now we will look to see if there is a range forming or a new trend.
I see higher highs and higher lows with healthy volume on the 1hr

Looking at the 15min, we see this trend may be running out of steam. The TD sequential isn't as reliable on such low time frames but it does show us that a bull trend has begun to retest support. We may see follow-through with the current beat break of the inside bar into the cloud and then see an oversold RSI.

A view of our congestion zones shows us just how tight things are getting.

If we break through the previous high of the green 9 candle, I think we will have a higher chance of a trend reversal.
Comment: On the 4H we are getting a range, the past bull break then saw declining volume and the most recent bull break had even less volume.

Watch for rising volume.
Comment: My thoughts are that because we've had three bull breaks, the tides are in favor of the bulls.
Comment: My concern is that all three bull breaks failed to break the cloud and we had a recent lower high and lower low.
Comment: Bittrex USDT-BTC seems to lag behind GDAX, so what happens there may mimic to some degree what will happen on Bittrex. I'm not sure about the other exchanges yet.
Either way, I have my doubts that it will hold above 12500
On GDAX it did break out of the channel that I drew, but even with this spike in volume (ahem...Tether printed...) I think the bottom is not in.

RSI is overbought on the 4H and we can see historically that it can remain in oversold or overbought conditions for a very long time on the daily time frame
Comment: My buy order was hit and it fell about 200 points further before bouncing. Pretty good play so far in this market.
Comment: I drew this fib over BTC-USD to find the most recent significant retracement from the correction and bounce. I also deleted some of the congestion zones because the ones that remain line up very well with these fib zones.

Oh and update --- I was in and out of BTC all last night and put in a sell order around 11600, which was triggered and I've been in fiat waiting for what I imagine to be the last of the correction around the 23.6% level, revised from my previous target of 8400 and 9400.
I've been stairstepping and deleting fibs on this chart all day, you'd vomit at all the colors. But what we're left with is this.

Notice the range of 100% and 50% perfectly fits these daily inside bars that also happen to be dojis at the moment. Breaking either way will be an indicator of future price action.

On the daily time frame we have the 12 and 24 EMA trending downward, and despite the Ichimoku cloud being green, we are now trading below the cloud and the conversion line is still below the base line (bearish signal).

Volume is declining, as would be expected within two doji inside bars right as the weekend approaches. Today through the weekend will be decisive.

The TD sequential shows that we still have room for a red 1 - 9 pattern to play out and there'd be plenty of downside left after that.

Even if the bulls regain control, I'm strongly bearish on a further retracement to the 50% line and a break below would send us as low as the 23.6% line. There is strong support there and we are still in oversold levels on the daily, but overbought levels on the 4H reveal that there is room for more downside.
However, I have my doubts that we will see sub-9000 levels on Bittrex at least. Often we see spikes of 1000 points or more in comparison on GDAX.

For fun, drawing an enormous fib over the weekly chart shows that the 38.2% level would be about 7783, while the 50% is actually 10087, which supports my theory that we may not see the 8000s.

BTC breaking below both the 12 and 24 EMA on the 1hr, strong reversal signal
Comment: On the 15min we had a breakdown of the 12 and 24 EMA already and it's now a bearish cross
Comment: New area of support will be the 4H 12 EMA at 12206 and then the 24 EMA at 12037
Comment: It bounced back from the resistance of the 12 EMA on the daily, so this appears to be confirming that a lower high is in. I expect a higher low soon, but that doesn't mean this drop will not have some weight behind it.
Comment: On Coinbase we have now broken the 12 and 24 EMA on the 15min, 1hr, and 4hr timeframes.

The EMA cross seems to have already been negated. We are finally out of overbought RSI levels on the 4H and are oversold on the 1H. We may see some rebound.
Comment: BTC-USD Coinbase. This is exactly where I expected it to find strong support, about halfway down that weekly wick, here we probably have a strong higher low.
Trade closed: target reached
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