Bitcoin Trading with Technical Analysis on Daily for BITFINEX:BTCUSD by cryptoshort

Here comes a series of trades along with trading ideas and targets

Today's +500 rise within an hour is the first indication of buyer's interest near 6k. However, it failed to break the swing high=6358 & was rejected near 6259. If today's close is around 6,167.4, it will form a solid dragon-fly doji alert suggesting a balance between the supply/demand and is supported by positive RSI divergence on the channel-up RSI=33. Upon a follow-up volume (D), the short position must be closed as the price will be seeking a trend reversal (see also the twin peaks on the volume oscillator with a possible test of 6788 and ultimately 7200). Contrarily (with no follow-up volume on daily), the short (from high) will remain open & the price will hit TP=5530. Further note that we have just passed the Fib swing zone (June 23) that shows the longest bearish trend i.e. 47-days long so far.

Comment:

Post this dragon-fly doji, BTC continues on a neutral RSI (36) with an oversold 5H MFI channel up. It has made HLs so far and is trading sideways. I expect BTC to touch 6600 and 7200 in coming week. BTC has made several attempts over past days to break through 6K and it is tentatively appearing as triple bottom and/or a false break of this psychological level.

Comment:

Comment:

Bearish and Bullish key points to-date - BEARISH: Monthly, weekly and daily channels down with trend exhaustion defined on KO/ADX/Volume/VI with a longest channel down (nearly 50-days) in 2018. The entire leg down trades along Gann 2/1 from ATH. Bears have yet another problem for the past 6 months that they never closed below 6k. Can they do it this week? If you see it like this, then it sounds an easy short. However, recently people have pulled-out and the market sentiment is neutral which can be seen by the reduction in volatility. Trend exhaustion is a potential indication of the (near) bottom or trend reversal. BULLISH: Monthly defines a large cup & handle pattern, where past couple of years can also be seen as a flag-pole along with a possible 2018 bull flag. On daily, positive divergence is notable on RSI, which has been a rare thing for BTC along with recent dragonfly doji pattern (exactly on Feb 23 Swing Zone 21) and since then BTC is trading sideways. The wicky pattern can also be seen as a false break of the support. This suggests that the swing zone defines a potential move ahead. My plan remains the same (see June 27 post). Traditional stock experience says when you wick the support more, you go down but with BTC we can't say this. Enjoy trading!

Comment:

BTC finally made its day and closed below 6k. For a short-term it is clear that BTC may find it hard to cross the 6k pyschological level. However, I can't accept that for now since RSI divergence still remains a valid trend reversal signature along with the Doji Candlestick, which hasn't been fully retraced. Until we see BTC trading below 5700, we can't say much about bearish continuation.

Comment:

Bears finally managed to close below 6k on daily but couldn't close below June 24 low (Doji). It is nearly a double bottom for now, which may not survive either. Perhaps it may trade below before the closing of the week which seems apparent for now since the time is short. Nevertheless, the RSI bullish divergence remains valid until a new low is developed. Continuing the plan, the short was triggered with an old TP=5530. I am not confident about the shorts either since I have seen several positive signatures that sound unpleasant. Any ways, let us see where does the wind takes us!

Comment:

As I said, I wasn't confident about the short since I had seen so many bullish reversal signatures including RSI divergence, which was an obvious one and MFI. Now, the short trade has been closed with a long targetting 6600.

Comment:

With 1D channel down broken post rejection at ~5762 (double bottom) and importantly the confirmation of Dragonfly Doji, I am quite confident that BTC will re-test 6600-7200 on a strong 5H momentum(RSI=60). We have already seen a shallow-retracement down to Fib0.236. So far the neutral daily (RSI=43, MFI= 40) and the trading range below 7200 favors bears (MACD=-329) but the bulls have to capture 7200 comprehensively. Otherwise, bearish trend remains intact. Since BTC suffered from significant losses, I expect a slow recovery for couple of weeks. If true, this will form a sluggish journey towards 10k until Sep/Oct (C&H on daily). I am keeping a close eye on the volume based oscilators. Apologies if my views do not make you happy. GL!

Comment:

Just a small update, re-testing the channel down leg at 6180. I trust this will hold.

Comment:

The first major upside target i.e. 6600 reached & BTC breaks through VWMA(26) by gaining a momentum on daily (long waiting RSI=50). This also partly confirms the reversal patterns that I have been sharing on this forum. The last tests i.e. 6832 & ultimately 7200 are pending to release bearish stress for couple of weeks. Once that level is breached with tempo (vol), BTC will certainly challenge 9200 and 10k. Let's don't think that far for now. At present, the volume gains from 9k - 23k ().

And here is the updated

Comment:

And here is the updated data ()

Comment:

Hourly momentum is overbought (RSI=77, STOCHRSI=90; MFI=94) & I expect a shallow-retracement towards 6463 (/EMA20=6478), which will be another buy opportunity with a possible test of 6832 and ultimately 7200. The daily strenght remains bullish (B/O EMA20) along with RSI(7,14)=(61.7,50.1) cross. Note that we are building on a strong candlestick pattern (June 24 - reversal indication) along with positive divergence indicated by momentum indicators as well as by the money flow on daily. I expect buyers to take some control here on the weak bearish trend (50-days long). Nevertheless, the bearish trend can resume below 7200, which remains a threat for longs but not for long. Scalpers can also take a small profit on leverage down to 6560 in few hours.

Comment:

Despite overbought RSI on hourly BTC traded flat showing the significance of 6600 and momentum. It's very likely that it will ramp to 6800 soon. Otherwise, the TP=6560 on leverage remains on card.

Comment:

BTC tested Fib0.236=6462 and is hovering around with a neutral channel up on daily (RSI=46.8, MFI=43). Majority of the other 1D TIs have turned green with a cautionary BBP=187. We can't negate any push from here or below. MACD=-200 is bearish on 1D with descending strength (ADX=33.7). I trust BTC will test Fib0.382=6331 (M/DC=6303) w.r.t. the shoter-timeframes (hourly) n leg down either towards oversold state (RSI=38.7, MACD=-24, CCI=-52). Importantly, the trend strength (ADX=31.3) is stronger enough to be retained for few hours. 5H is finding a support near neutral RSI=50 whereas MFI=81 (overbought) is a stretch. Thus, we may see a leg-down towards Fib0.382 with a max. retracement to Fib0.618=6119. As soon as the shoter timeframes find a support/get oversold, I will risk another buy on daily (mainly below Fib0.382). Else I will remain neutral and seek a short oppotunity below 6K. Both sell scalps hit (6560 twice, 6480 once) on BM & scalping the next ranges (6541-6401-6313).

Comment:

Hourly momentum is loosing steam and isn't looking good, whereas the daily is good enough so far. If BTC doesn't trade above 6800 today or goes below 6600, I will pull-out and will re-enter when the daily RSI gets above 53.....https://invst.ly/7xb56.

Comment:

I don't look at shorter time-frames so often due to inherent noise but here it is from TV. The thing is that it has to print a high to re-test and then pullback towards MA20/EMA20 on daily. That should be a buy opportunity if holds.

Comment:

Following 1H and 5H bearish divergences BTC is on its way to develop the right Inverted HnS pattern (neckline 6760) with a channels up. The last pullbacks were supported on MA20 on 5H/4H timeframes, which were equivalent to the shallow retracements (Fib0.236). Thus, this possible pullback (reflected as right shoulder) may again find the support near MA20=6521 with a maximum retracement down to Fib0.618=6161.8, which might be seen as a wick. I am neutral for now and will load depending on the development of the right shoulder or B/O of the neckline. Again, remember that 1D channel is up (with a broken 1D Channel down from 9990) on the positive divergence (1D, June 22-29). This situation favors longs/bulls for now!

Comment:

1D continues to trade above M/KC, thus remains bullish. Only a short term pullback towards 4H M/KC has been offered so far. For details refer to the above post.

Comment:

BTC continues on shorter time-frames bearish divergence as reported yesterday. It has tested the expected level annotated on this chart (with updated data)...https://invst.ly/7xqay. We did not see a strong bounce from the expected level but a slight sideways movement. The 1H oscillators as well as the momentum indicators are bearish so a further movement downward is expected towards the next level (~6300). That is all I can see for now & remain bullish since it is a battle between long term triple bottom+RSI positive divergence vs. recent double top near 6778. The damage is only done when either a new low or a new lower high will develop. I will continue supporting triple bottom + RSI positive divergence until a new low is developed. Thus, the next dip will be a buy attempt for me.

Comment:

Fib0.236=6546.6 is limiting the upside push. Once that is broken, the price will move up towards MA50=7004 (as per B/O=6778 of the double top). Whereas, the downside support Fib0.382=6399.1 restricts a further drop towards buyers area pullback area. For now the price is supported at the middle of channel-up with a double bottom near 6450 (critical level), which is giving a slight push-up towards Fib0.236. I am getting interested in adding a long if Fib0.236 is broken with a target towards MA50=7002.1 days. Otherwise, I will remain neutral & will be waiting for a dip towards Fib0.5=6280 or below. Further, 5H bullish cross MA(50,100)=(6338,6382) is

Comment:

Hourly bearish divergence finds support and is holding around the middle of channel up i.e. 6550. Here is an updated chart post bearish divergence on 1H July 4 with an arrow pointing towards the key support 6446, which has happened exactly as expected. Since the price is holding above 6550, I have added a small long. Chart: (before) (after - channel updated). The next immediate R is at 6645. Once the B/O=6778 happens, we shall be targeting 1D MA50=7002.1.

Comment:

Since money flow channels up:

Comment:

The channeled-up BTC finally gains its momentum above RSI=53 (July 4) benchmark as it traded above 6800 on a positive volume with MACD=74 approaching a bullish cross-over along with volume based oscillators. 5H bullish cross (MA50-100) has already happened as BTC bonced off from the middle of channel ( previously: ) & should test daily MA50, which is now at 6946.5 (TP=7002.1). I am looking forward to today's close, which shall not form a 1D Doji, as it will indicate a re-test of 6k & will mostly likely reject the reversal ideas (RSI positive divergence, Jun 24 Doji Dragonfly, June 23 Fib Swing zone 21.

Comment:

Follow-up to my previous post: Yesterday's candle didn't form bearish reversal (Doji) on daily. The small body approximates hourly volatility. However, 5H FT(1.9,1.7) indicates a pullback towards MA20=6626 (Middle of the Channel up) with a possible test down to MA50=6494.4 which allows me to put a short scalp & close the long. I will re-buy the dip with the same upside target (MA50 on daily) since the daily momentum remains positive (RSI=52.3, ADX=35, BBP=306) with MACD=-50 approaching zero line (updated chart with new data: ) while the volume is back to square one on BFX=9.38K indicating that the volatility remains low so a possible shallow to moderate retracement (Fib0.236-0.382 - see graphs).

Comment:

Daily chart updated:

Comment:

5H pulled back to my first short-scalp 'MA20=6626' (middle of the channel up) and is aiming MA50=6494.4 below which stands the strong low (5H) 'MA100=6405.4'. 5H is also oozing a hidden bullish divergence (against RSI) until MA100. 1D FT pullback (Sell signal), on a neutral RSI, will find a support based on the 5H development for the next 3-4 periods. If 5H fails to make a new low below MA100 (see also Fib0.5=6300 support), I will mate the shorts and will be a re-buy signal (Tgt 1D MA50). Otherwise, I will not open a long until the price trades above one of the potential Fib levels AND/OR 1D MACD crosses the zero line. Again, I am following the series of points since mid June: (A) Fib swing zone (June 23), (B) 49 days long bearish trend, (C) June 24 Dragonfly Doji, (D) Regular Bullish Divergence, (E) triple bottom (5822 OR ~6K). Failure: guaranteed short, Success: squeeze the 2014-15 market time.

Comment:

All short scalps (x20) filled & BTC has finished the first corrective wave (5H Three Black Cows) which extends down to wave-C (possible) Fib1.618=5997.3. This also approximates 1D RSI support line near 37 since the bullish divergence. So far it has nearly tested the Fib0.5=6309.8 and we may see Wave-B back to 6435.6 since the past 5H was a Doji (M) reversal. Since 1D FT(1.93,3.09) is bearish, I do see a risky trade to hunt down from 6425 to 6184 (SL=6500). Alongside, I will be anxiously waiting for a re-buy signal since AO has turned bullish (X) and MACD=-70 is close to the zero line (upside target 1D MA50). Plus, the RSI bullish divergence continues to hold along with the June 24 dragonfly reversal pattern.

Comment:

All short-scalps are positively closed. 5H 3 blk cows are partly rejected at July 11 22:00 UTC (20hrs flat RSI=33; STOCHRSI=OVERSOLD) with a weak buy signal on hourly divergence whereas FT(-2.7,-2.8) is nearly oversold. 1D still makes HL setup (Wave 2, Fib0.5=6304) on price as well as on indicators. 5H didn't complete the 'BC' corrections yet (Fib0.786=6000), which is a risk. Thus, a small long scalp won't do any harm with an upside limit=6450 (since ATR are low) a point where the situations (5H) has to be reassessed to confirm if this is a correction (see HA curves on daily / RSI 1D +ve div) or the continuation of bearish trend below the provisional bottom.

Comment:

Earlier on I posted the partial rejection on 5H and just after two bars, BTC rejects 6300 (Fib50%) with a bullish dragonfly doji on 1H. This may complete the corrective wave#2 on daily. Note that the 5H still has to close while the daily remains neutral. Details later as we need more data to make a solid conclusion here. Further long has been added. The immediate support below is Fib0.618=6184 (so a SL just above it should be sufficient for now).

Comment:

The risk was that 5H didn't complete the 'BC' corrections (Fib0.786=6000) also the upside B-wave to 6450 couldn't reach instead SL near Fib0.618=6184 was triggered. For now BTC is at a key support level i.e. Fib0.618=6184 with 5H near oversold RSI=26, FT=(-2.5,2.6), MACD=-80. With this momentum and low ATR I wonder how low will it go, perhaps 5848 if Fib0.786 is broken, which is just under the golden Fib0.886 for cryptos. I am on sidelines for now & not interested to short this until the positively diverging RSI channel up (on daily) is broken below 36.

Comment:

Despite so many attempts to pull this down to 3K/2K, no panic sell has been triggered. So, how should one look at this? The answer may lie in the volume based oscillators. Choose your direction, I only see that bulls are progressively taking controls. If this is true, this will be the very beginning of the reversal. For instance, see the tiny-miny blue arrows negating the price fall. On a larger time-frame, volume trends up. Thus, I expect a slow growth with minor declines but a cup & handle until Oct/Nov. I don't fomo, since with this volatility price isn't going anywhere except daily ATR so many opportunities to come across in near future. I'll remain calm & stay neutral. Good luck!

Comment:

Fib0.618 held, and BTC bounced back to re-test 1D MA20=6386.6 resistance on a neutral channel up (RSI=46, STOCHRSI=39) whereas the MACD=-126.8 remains is sell territory. Since the key fib level held, we can assume the recent pullback as wave#2, whereas it may extend to Fib1.618=7470 as an upside limit of the impuslive wave#3. Current 5H bullish momentum is slow which restricts me to open a long. Although I am looking forward to my suggested reversal signatures (June 23 swing zone, Jun 24 dragonfly doji, RSI positive divergence, money flow etc.), I am remaining netural until the breakout (Long) of neckline=6826.1(last high) occurs OR BTC breaks the bottom (Short).

Comment:

A capture of today's daily showing the likelihood of inv HnS to complete with an upside limit of ew=7470, whereas the up-trending support lines for each indicator are Hope this helps and GL!

Comment:

A quick follow-up to my last post. 5H is though sluggish but has a momentum (RSI=61.7; STOCHRSI=overbought) with a good trend strength (ADX=39), which may put daily to neutral pretty soon as it has broken through daily MA20 resistance. I do expect a low-volume pullback which should maintain the last low as BTC seeks a test of the 6800 resistance zone through impulsive wave 3. I calmly wait for the B/O of the last high or the last low since this will confirm the trend direction. GL!

Comment:

Finally the daily gets the momentum back (RSI > 53; Bullish Fisher Transform) and hopefully it will close around here. This also means a test of the neckline (~6826) to complete the pattern & upon B/O a back-test is possible, where I will place the buy orders (TP=7420) in coming days. Upon rejection, it will be a short opportunity, which I don't see happening since my view is based on several fundamental reversal patterns at this market. All I wanted to see is the breakout of the rectangle (6000-6800) by the continuation of wave-3 (follow-up volume), (6000-6800) towards fib extension i.e. 1.618=7470, where I'll expect moderate to deep retracement. Previous chart with updated data:

Comment:

BTC gaining momentum (RSI=67.8) on a strong up-trend (ADX=29.8) resumes the channel-up with wave-3 completing f1.618=7470 seeks the upside limit=7800 of the InvHnS. Since 5H/1H are way overbought, a pullback (corrective wave=4) is due to back-test 7000-6800 support area. If these pullbacks are of low volume and shallow, they will remain a buy signal.If EW continues, the upside wave-5 will approximate at 8897, which equates MA200, also means a possible test or a B/O of MA100=7613 resistance. I see the bullish Daily contains enough momentum to do this whereas the weekly has just turned neutral.

Comment:

Since we have a new high for this developing trend, we can update the fib levels and project the expected pullbacks. Thus, here they are: low volume pullback is all we are interested in opposed to high volume pullbacks.

Comment:

BTC showed a minor divergence on 5H (7544-7581), which resulted in a low volume pullback (7249; RSI=75 from its extreme peak) post a first test of MA100=7629.4. Daily printed a minor consolidating candle which can mistakenly be seen as a Doji, which isn't the case since it is a result of increasing buy volume with a strong momentum (RSI=66). For now BTC is trading just under Fib1.618=7470. Until we see a strong divergence on 5H OR on 1D, we are good for a re-test of MA100 with an extension towards 8346 and shallow retracements down to Fib0.236-0.382=7128.2-6867.3. Since it is a low volume pullback, I initiated a minor buy, TP=7700.

Comment:

Recalling the previous support and resistance levels: 7200 - 7777 are still in play!

Comment:

A few good things so far: (1) Old channel-up on daily/5H is still alive & BTC fakes out sell, breaks-out the bottom and returns to the same channel top - an important thing to keep you trend lines saved. (2) Note the daily MA50 vs MA20, may cross in near future. (3) Very important for 5H trend strength - MA stacking order is flipped i.e. bullish (MA200 is placed under MA100, which is under MA50, which is under MA20)....https://invst.ly/81aad. Assuming this sustains, then low volume pullbacks will always be the buys with SLs hidden under the last resistance.

Comment:

BTC did wick (7685) towards 1D MA100 and my TP=7700 but the awaiting pullback (1H gravestone doji - bearish) appeared much similar to July 9, 13 wickiness indicating the importance of MA100. For now BTC tested the middle of channel up. Since 5H didn't cool-off yet, a retracement back to Fib0.236=7233 with max. Fib0.382=6955.9 on a low volume will be a buy for me since we are developing on successive indicators, with weekly channel up (see 9-weeks Fisher Transform) & 5H Moving Averages are now stacked in a normal order. Uptrend momentum only weakens when 1D & 1W Fisher indicates bearish reversal in this situation. GL!

Comment:

A typical case for price channel traders where price hits the MA20 on a given time-frame and closes above! In this case, it is KC. I will put further buy orders with TP=7700.

Comment:

BTC (5H) remains on a strong momentum with a low volume pullback towards expected Fib0.236=7233 (approx. mid-channel) offering the buy opportunity prior to bounce off rejecting yesterday's bearish engulfing. The nearly flat RSI (5-days) near overbought zone suggests that its not done yet & the momentum remains strong (see also Weekly Fisher). 5H MA stacking order continues favoring upside potential. Trade remains active! Chart with updated data:

Comment:

Trade Win (TP=7700) while BTC will test the last resistance i.e. 7777. If broken with volume, it will possibly reach MA200. I now wait for the next low volume pullback and continuously add notes to the reversal synthesis.

Comment:

BTC (1D) with a strong momentum/trend strength (peaks 7820 just above 7777 R) continues to channel-up, trades close to MA100=7621 (short term support) and remains potentially above MA50=6730 support. Money Flow/volume still exhibits less sell pressure (>50) with increasing daily volatility ($318). 5H overbought & diverging shows the underlying weaknesses but with less volatility ($133) suggesting a possibility of low volume pullbacks. With weekly channel-up & engulfing past week, and strong daily, a good test of weekly mid-price channel (M/DC=7889) will open the doors towards 8400 i.e. F2.618 extension of the first impulse. While the low volume pullbacks remain my interest in this course. Sentiment: Short-term bullish until wave-4 (Correction). Cross-overs: 1D MA (20, 50) - Bullish; Active Trade: No. Further on

Comment:

Finally BTC breaks through 7777 comprehensively as well as Weekly Mid Channel (7889), awaiting weekly close, with today’s peak 8,043.3. This is all based on the reversal patterns (24 June doji, RSI reg. Div., swing zone 23, triple bottom) that I outlined since late June post 49-days long bearish cycle, which not only squeezed the shorts but also squeezed the 2014-15 market. The only psychological resistance is 10K now the rests such as 8200-8500, 9200-9400 zones are short-term resistances. With overbought RSI on daily you can expect a pullback towards RSI 50, which will remain in buy territory. Similarly, the 4th corrective wave can go for deep retracement thus a short opportunity, while long remains the primary trend. Since it is way stretched above my last TP=7700 with overbought conditions, I’ll wait for the wave-3 to complete under (Fib2.618 / 8400) & buy the pullback...updated chart:

Pullback alert zones where I am going to put buy orders given daily RSI holds above 50: (1) 5H MA20 OR Fib1.618 (2) Between MA50-MA100. This will give me enough time to re-assess 1D situation prior to opening

Comment:

5H Divergence (HH+RSI Double top) has started supported by FT being negative. I'll wait for the next 5H close prior to adding a short since this is the 4th corrective wave, which can go for deep retracement Fib0.5. Since the 1D/1W momentum is very strong, I'll first aim small i.e. Fib0.236=7854 with an extension possibility towards Fib0.382=7454 just above 5H MA50 periods. Note that the up-trend remains intact unless BTC breaks through 6K. Any pullback is a buy but you can trade both ways once the 3rd wave is complete, thus a short. If BTC puts a shallow retracement i.e. between Fib0.236-Fib0.382, it will certainly aim towards the next psychological level since there aren't many resistances left until 10k. I'll keep you posted!

Comment:

1H is putting a HnS pattern with a neckline=8172 (). The right shoulder may toss up to complete 8263-8355. If BTC breaks the neckline, the downside sell target is 7811, which apparently is just under 23% retracement. I think this is an small sell opportunity unless played with a considerable leverage. Since the volume is low and if remains low during the b/o of the neckline, it will be a buy signal at that level. GL and trade safe!

Comment:

Notorious BTC offers you again a low volume pullback. It broke down the neckline and quickly recovered. It certainly shows that the daily and weekly bullish momentum are holding. Can it test the MA200, that is the big question now. Trade active, targeting first MA200 on daily.

Comment:

The problem now is today's closing candle pattern and tomorrow's confirmation. In either cases, if BTC closes near to today's open or here, it will from Doji/Hanging man pattern, which subjects to tomorrows confirmation for a sell signal instead. This also means that I have to monitor this quite a lot.

Comment:

See this chart for today's candle before closing:

Comment:

According to Fibonacci levels, the 3rd wave is overextended (2.618) as well as volume oscillators with twin peaks suggest some corrections (wave-4; again note it can go deep if wave-3 is overextended). Volume reduces to 26K from its peak 64.7K. However, the net volume is not supporting the red candles since the pullbacks are of low volume indicating that the strong momentum on 5H/1D/1W isn't done yet and this is perhaps not the top. This sounds true since we still have to see the final impulsive wave past corrections. At this moment we are consolidating between 8100-8300. Here is my plan, keep the longs open unless 8K where I will reverse the trade.

Comment:

BTC consolidates on a flat low volume (see OBV 5H/1H) between 8100-8300 while it is at the verge of completing a bullish pennant, upon successful the upside limit is awkwardly placed near 9240, and upon failure (below 8000), downside limit is 7239. With decreasing volume (25K), I'll keep the same strategy.

Comment:

Here is the chart,

Comment:

.So far the impulsive wave-3 reached the predicted levels (e.g. Fib1.618, 2.618) post RSI pos div (in late Jun), swing zone 21 (Jun 23), Jun 24 Doji, triple bottom etc. With weekly and monthly being green, I am least bothered about any bearish continuation until 6K. Short-term lows/highs won't matter much here. What we see now is a failure of pennant with a max. target down towards 7239 (daily Neg FT). I'll be following it until 6800 (LH). At present it is testing Fib0.236=7847 (or the last 7777 R). With long closed and short triggered, I placed my TP at 7453(=Fib0.382) as I want to see what will happen if this puts a shallow retracement. Given this dip holds above 6800 (also recall how strong 7200 has been in past), it will form a higher low and the up-trend will remain intact, which will form a re-buy signal. Short-term: 1H RSI bottomed first time since Mid July, may post a bullish divergence while 5H holds in a neutral zone.

Comment:

BTC retested the bottom (MA9) and rebounded with a dragonfly doji at UTC 15:45 15M on a flat RSI in 5H while the volume returns to its low (15K). This shows how important 8K is for now. Furthermore, today's weekly close around MA20/Middle band is important. If BTC closes around 8180, it will form Doji on daily, rejecting yesterday's engulfing pattern and further signaling a correction down to 7200 area near Fib0.5. 5H does post HL/LL (UP) setup with BTC trading around Middle price channel (EMA20/MA20). It is very likely that we will re-test 7777. I will keep the long open until we see 8000 or we break-out 8500 (1D MA200) and test 9K.

Comment:

Post 5H bearish setup (HH+RSI Double Top), BTC made shallow retracement (Fib0.236=7858) just above the last lower high (7777.6), which remains a valid and important support level. Despite couple of attempts to fall below 8K, it was always bought (sort of double bottom at Fib0.236). Note that the BUY VOL remains higher than the sell volume on each 5H drops. Furthermore, 5H puts HL/LL divergence pattern which is a bullish continuation on this time-frame. Thus, a re-test of high remains a valid assertion. If any further attempt to break the support fails, BTC will follow what I said, "1D RSI is staying above 50 is a sign of momentum which is not done yet, indicating a possibility of double top near 8500, or B/O to reach 9k psychological target". Therefore, my Long Position remains open (targeting 9K) and Short position is only added if the support fails with TPs (Fib0.382=7462; and 7220). All the best!

Comment:

BTC broke the support 7777.6 with longs closed and short positions being added with TP=7462 reached. whereas the next one is on board i.e. 7220. As long as BTC holds above 6800 its going to continue the up-trend. I tread this as 4th corrective wave while 5 to come.

Congratulations, July ends green!

Comment:

Closing this long chain and will start a new trading page for Aug.