I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: Reiterated views from previous post and warned about alts pumping before falling off a cliff
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32
Patterns: 4h bear pennant with $4,557 target
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,200 | R: $5,518
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard from shooting star
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0263% | Was not expecting to see that based on the BTCUSDSHORT’ chart. Makes me wonder where all these shorts are? According to blockchainwhispers.com the long:short ratio is 54:46 therefore I cannot understand why shorts are paying longs. If anyone knows please leave a comment!
Looking at 4h trends today
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price recently closed below
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Recent sell signal with 3 crossing 8
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angled down sharply, will be apart of resistance cluster if we bounce to $6,000
Overall trend: bear
Volume: Volume has died down following the spike, another volume spike should be following soon.
FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th') 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: Failing to bounce off high volume dragonfly is very bearish
Ichimoku Cloud: Thick 1 hour cloud shows strong resistance at $5,570 - $5,780
TD’ Sequential: Daily red 9
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.75% | 2w: -12.97% | 1m: -14.42%
Bollinger Bands: Watching for price to stick to bottom band after closing outside
Trendline: Bear pennant
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: After breaking all of the down fractals in 2018 we found support above the next one down ($5,122)
RSI: All time low on daily. Watching closely for divergence
Stochastic: Daily looks like it is recrossing bearish
Summary: The first consolidation after a move is often redistribution (or reaccumulation) and it is starting to look like BTC’ will following that pattern instead of bouncing to retest $6,000 for resistance.
The 4h chart is forming a bear pennant with a $4,350 target. That will confirm with a close below the previous candle ($5,410 on USD exchanges).That would also give the daily chart a chance to form the bull div’ that I have been watching for.
That also lines up very nicely with my prediction that $5,000 will breakdown without providing a bounce due to the gap in volume. If that happens then $4,200 - $4,500 would be very likely to provide support.
If all goes according to plan then I will be closing my shorts in that area and looking to open small longs. In the meantime I am stalking alt’s looking for short positions. EOS’, LTC’, XRP’ and TRX’ are at the very top of my list and I think the next 1-2 days will provide some prime entries.
My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018.
Previous analysis: Reiterated views from previous post and warned about alts pumping before falling off a cliff
Position: Short BTC:USD from $6,353 | Short ETH:USD from $205.20 & $196.32
Patterns: 4h bear pennant with $4,557 target
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $5,200 | R: $5,518
BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back hard from shooting star
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0263% | Was not expecting to see that based on the BTCUSDSHORT’ chart. Makes me wonder where all these shorts are? According to blockchainwhispers.com the long:short ratio is 54:46 therefore I cannot understand why shorts are paying longs. If anyone knows please leave a comment!
Looking at 4h trends today
Short term trend (3 day MA): Price recently closed below
Medium term trend (8 day MA): Recent sell signal with 3 crossing 8
Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Angled down sharply, will be apart of resistance cluster if we bounce to $6,000
Overall trend: bear
Volume: Volume has died down following the spike, another volume spike should be following soon.
FIB’s: High of Feb 20th and low of Feb 6th') 1 = $5,863 | 1.272 = $4,262 | 1.4140 = $3,426 | 1.618 = $2,224
Candlestick analysis: Failing to bounce off high volume dragonfly is very bearish
Ichimoku Cloud: Thick 1 hour cloud shows strong resistance at $5,570 - $5,780
TD’ Sequential: Daily red 9
Visible Range: If price can’t support $5,200 then I expect us to fall right through $5,000 due to the gap in volume
Price action: 24h: -0.75% | 2w: -12.97% | 1m: -14.42%
Bollinger Bands: Watching for price to stick to bottom band after closing outside
Trendline: Bear pennant
Daily Trend: Bearish
Fractals: After breaking all of the down fractals in 2018 we found support above the next one down ($5,122)
RSI: All time low on daily. Watching closely for divergence
Stochastic: Daily looks like it is recrossing bearish
Summary: The first consolidation after a move is often redistribution (or reaccumulation) and it is starting to look like BTC’ will following that pattern instead of bouncing to retest $6,000 for resistance.
The 4h chart is forming a bear pennant with a $4,350 target. That will confirm with a close below the previous candle ($5,410 on USD exchanges).That would also give the daily chart a chance to form the bull div’ that I have been watching for.
That also lines up very nicely with my prediction that $5,000 will breakdown without providing a bounce due to the gap in volume. If that happens then $4,200 - $4,500 would be very likely to provide support.
If all goes according to plan then I will be closing my shorts in that area and looking to open small longs. In the meantime I am stalking alt’s looking for short positions. EOS’, LTC’, XRP’ and TRX’ are at the very top of my list and I think the next 1-2 days will provide some prime entries.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/