I don't think that yesterdays dump was the end of this parabolic rise. BTC stabilized too fast for it being the end of this move. Plus, the perfect parabolic shape is just too painfully obvious to ignore.
I see two important resistance zones, the upper monthly bollinger band at 12-13k, and the ATH resistance at 20k. There are of course other resistances, but those two are very strong.
So, in the most bullish case, BTC could indeed go to 20k by the end of June. Then a few months of sideways after the dump, and drawing a nice giant cup and handle with the ATH.
In the normal bull case, we'll see 12-13k as the intermediary top, dump to 7-8k, and consolidate at these levels until the upmove resumes. This all is highly interesting, and we could see BTC do something which it has not done before.
A move to 20k directly from here, would not have a precedent, there is no fractal which is similar from the timing and velocity of the move.
I find it highly fascinating. But the parabola still has one hole month left until going vertical, and we all know what can happen in one month :)
Comment
⋅
We're still perfectly in the parabola:
Upward pressure is resuming a bit. But that's still not very strong, we need a stronger push to confirm resuming the upward trend to the next big resistance area at 12-13k.
After that, let's see if btc wants to dump, or if it indeed wants to push for 20k.
Comment
⋅
The parabola shifting towards a lower aggressiveness and therefore longer until we continue the rally:
Comment
⋅
If this dump goes below 7000, and there are good chances it will, we'll probably go back to the 2012 fractal view:
This means a few months of consolidation until uptrend continues.
Comment
⋅
So the parabola here is still active, even though BTC rested a bit longer, therefore prolonging the parabola a bit:
But this means we could pump even higher. See my gold chart comparison as a hint of how high we could go.
@Boon2, Looking interesting. Also a possibility, yes.
ReallyMe
⋅
Maybe... who knows. Although I think that BTC does not live and develop in a parallel financial universe, independent of the rest, and simply continues to grow strongly, while the financial markets continue to plunge into new depths. As the cash supply becomes scarcer, the market capitalization of the cryptos may shrink.
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@ReallyMe, It's a valid point of view! I am unsure however if the financial markets really will plunge to depths. Too many people expect it, and in the yearly timeframe, the stock market looks like the beginning of a new Kondratieff supercycle that could last decades. But as always, these are just my opinions, and I of course could be wrong :)
ReallyMe
⋅
@FlaviusTodorius67, who knows, we will see. The recent development of the Gold price tells another story, though...
SebastianofMoon
⋅
@ReallyMe, Interesting. I'll keep an eye on Gold then :)
deactivatedaccount123
⋅
@ReallyMe, Gold rising means people are possibly fleeing traditional market's. Bitcoin started rising on the heels of US markets beginning to roll over.
This is just my personal opinion here but I think 2+2=4
BearFuck
⋅
@MC_Peewee, Bitcoin start rising according to China government weak yuan and control of capital outflow. If you small/middle investor from China you have no other way to store of value except Bitcoin.
ReallyMe
⋅
@MC_Peewee, Yes, the question will be, where do the people, who move a lot of money and want to get most and safe returns in the process flee to? Such people as pension and investment fund managers... They flee to the safe haven of Gold, which has been safe for centuries, or do they also flee into such volatile and unpredictable asset as crypto? I don't think the answer is going to be that clear.
BearFuck
⋅
@ReallyMe, Imagine you live in parallel universe for example in Venezuela or China or Uzbekistan... where government weak local currency and you even can't buy enough USD, you have limit $30 000 per year on cross-border payments... What would you buy for local currency?
Imagine you live in parallel universe for example you "Lord of War" from Bulgaria with 2 ton of dirty cash... What would you buy?