For starter, i feel like i've been wrong with my read of this entire down move -my reversal points were off So this isn't much of analysis, more a warning, we might be setting up for a squeeze, be ready in case it happens
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Here is a more detailed version, if the red (and black line) above break, target above in black if this attempt fails again and the blue line break, target under in black also.
This has been a reversal pattern, successful on the far left, successful on top, but failed on the left right next to where we are (and that's the spot i totally misread during the move down).
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haven't seen that squeeze yet, not sure it's gonna happen, right now it looks more like a corrective pattern than the type of bullish advance we've seen recently.
that can mean two things : 1) as stated above this is still part of a corrective move 2) market psychology is switching, previous sequence were 1; i or (i)'s, and as we are starting larger wave price might finally get rid of those &% "bart patterns"
not based on much, just pointing out similitude here, we moved up in a diagonal, the black line which should hold.
Using the elliot wave count from the double bottom at 5790 and assuming this is wave 2 of a 5 wave impulse Im getting a target of around 7467. Candles on the daily are supporting a bullish move, over there we see 3 red candles eatch one smaler then the previous one. The second one being a hanging man folowed by a doji whitch are typically reveral candlesticks patterns.
So we micht be in for a nice ride up :)
lady_luck
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@Beefchest, i have been sticking to the exact same count. I have wave 3 around 7400-7700 (if extended) and wave 5 around 8500.
6500 would be wave i of 3, checking back there for the sub-wave and confirm an impulse.
Beefchest
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@lady_luck, Yeah my count exactely. However do be carefull after wave 3. Because if we get to the top of wave 3, and thats a big IF, we might be in for the mother off all bull traps before the final plunge to 4k and maybe even lower.
lady_luck
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@Beefchest, yes, the top of 3 would coincide perfectly with the top of a wave C, right in the 0.5-0.618 of the move down from 9900-5800 (which then would be a wave 3-4 down)
lady_luck
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@lady_luck, my main count so far looks like this : Just waiting to be invalidated lol
Beefchest
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@lady_luck, Holy smokes, you really seem to know what you are talking about :)
My knowledge of Elliot wave Theorie is definitely not as deep as yours ':D
lady_luck
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@Beefchest, thank you. I used to trade exclusively out of EW, but i pretty much stopped using it. Unfortunately It hasn't worked out well for me since pretty much april 2013.
Since then, impulse wave up making higher high started to look more like weird ABC to the upside, i saw those crazy fib extension everywhere, lack of overlap and the shallowest correction when trending one way or the other.
So i often found myself waiting for a last wave that never came or expected a shorter move that instead extended like crazy. And that didn't go to well.
But i still count them for fun :)
christemiller
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so you think its up up and away?
lady_luck
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@christemiller, not sure yet about how high, but if we break above the red line, fib 0.6 at 6500 would be my first target
Needs to be a squeeze tho, and so far attempt to do so have failed
So we micht be in for a nice ride up :)