BTC has continued higher with no surprise. In the last few updates I shared the reasons why I was bullish on Bitcoin, in particular the dead giveaway was the drop in March 2020 and the months of consolidation below the $10,000 resistance.
Current prices are at a location to lock in some profits. Both the 0.786 fib retracement of the entire bear market ($15,900) and the pivot of the bearish "N" formation ($16,300) are some serious resistances. Additionally, the recent rise was a bit too fast. I would prefer it to be a steadily rise as that will build a good foundation for a healthy bull market. Due to the broader trend is bullish, resistance is for taking profits on long positions, not for opening short positions.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ When to re-enter? If we are locking in some profits now, when should we re-enter our investment positions? Again, we use fib retracement as well as structures as our main tools to determine the significant level to enter. The recent swing low is @ around $10,000 and the swing low before it is in confluence with the 0.618 of the entire upmove since March 2020 @ around $8,800. Thus, around $8800 - $10,000 is the level I would consider to re-enter.
Please note, this does not mean I am predicting Bitcoin to drop to $10,000 or below. I am a trader, not an analyst. The only thing critical to me is whether I am buying the low and selling the high and whether the trade can give me a high probability and risk reward.
When will I consider shorting? Bitcoin has continued to create higher high & higher low. There is no reason for me to consider shorting this market unless: 1. Bitcoin closes weekly below the recent low @ $9,800, or 2. Months of consolidation occurs between 13XXX - 16XXX then followed by a breakdown of the consolidation range
I hope you find this post insightful. Enjoy your day.
"I am a trader, not an analyst." The only analysis worth listening to is a trader's! Why? Because when traders get it wrong, we lose! When analysts get it wrong they cash their paycheques and move onto their next mistake.
Thanks for the great analysis!