NightWish
Long

2014 What has happened and what is yet to happen

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
7766 18 44

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Update: because my technical skills are not there nor here, my USD 479 is off. We are going to test USD 522 (thank you @4xForecaster for the real technical skills). If Bitlicense comments = unclear we are going to retest lower again which will be around USD 240 / 250, if it is positive we will go straight through 525 and make it support again, probably rallying straight up to USD 650 / 706 where the biggest bulls are waiting to support the rally. Then around the end of december we will see the final version of Bitlicense which i think (hope) will be positive. USA is blocking Argentina to pay of their debts so i can see Argentina going for full default end of december as well, this will all be combined news to start a really strong new Bitcoin rally.
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This is my first graph ever here, I'm aware that it's not technically accurate but it's the main idea behind it all that matters. These are my thoughts on what has happened and what might still happen. Feel free to comment and remember, it's just a theory ;)

21st october;
Source: http://www.dfs.ny.gov/legal/vcrf_submit_comments.htm
Additional Information: http://www.coindesk.com/new-york-extends-comment-period-bitlicense-proposals/
This will be a comment-period, so I was a bit off with the information on that, it's where the Bitlicense will be open for comments.

25th December;
"In a statement released today, the foundation highlights the need for public access to the “extensive research and analysis” cited by the NYDFS when the BitLicense was first proposed. This data, it says, is essential to examine the rationale used by the NYDFS in substantiating its regulatory proposal.

The foundation further points out that the NYDFS has failed to produce these materials. Despite an initial promise to publish by 20th October 2014, the NYDFS has since delayed the delivery of its research until December."

Source: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-foundation-calls-access-research-behind-bitlicense/
Great chart! looks like 21st October will be a great shorting opportunity :-) Do you see the $4000+ USD price happening in 2015?
+1 Reply
NightWish pumapunko
Thanks, appreciate it. I think 2015 will indeed be a great bull-year and the 4800-6800 will absolutely happen in 2015 imo. I'd like to see 2014 as the make-it-or-break-it_year or the Chasm-bridge we had to cross before reaching early maturity

http://www.sireninteractive.com/sirensong/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/tech.jpg
+1 Reply
pumapunko PRO NightWish
I hadn't heard the term chasm bridge before but that graphic is very illustrative of where Bitcoin currently is! There I was thinking I got into bitcoin late yet where still at the beginning, Kinda like investing in google in 1998 :-) Im looking forward to the 21st got my sell orders set :-)
Reply
NightWish pumapunko
Don't forget to create your own plan, we could also hit 525usd and never stop going up, allthough this is highly unlikely, when you do sell out, keep a good eye on any movement indicating that we are not done yet with going up. Keep all options open and try not to focus to much on one thought.
+1 Reply
pumapunko PRO NightWish
Ill have stops in place in case price continues and have an automated script to begin selling at 468 to 470 (very strong resistance area) and then to continue selling portions of my holdings as the price goes downwards. If the price runs away upwards ill only have sold a small amount and will have been stopped out so i won't loose much ;-)
+1 Reply
Linking the dots.

Past:
- July 17th: Bitlicense announced. BearWhale dumps on all exchanges to confirm we're still in a bear trend. Bitlicense comment period is extended from 45 days to 90 days, the framework will be published on Oct 21.

- Oct 5th BearWhale reveals himself with a sell wall of 3K Bitcoin priced $300 generating a panic sell, he certainly hoarded Bitcoin on all exchanges. The volume is incredible! When the wall is down the price goes up. Many thinks this was the trend reversal (me included).

- Oct 8th the Blood Moon. If Bitcoin is a cult, the Blood Moon is its most important festivity. It will occur again in 2015 on apr-4 and sep-28.

- Oct 9th, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission held a meeting to discuss Bitcoin. The chairman ends the conference with "Bitcoin is here to stay", also they said Bitlicense will be ready sometime in December.

Present:
- oct 12th, the price is on a slight upslope directed to Oct 21 the day Bitlicense will be officially published.

Future:
- oct 21th, Bitlicense comment period is over. I like how the elliot wave in your analysis get at the top on this day, as to confirm that this trend is highly probable.

- dec 26th, we don't know the exact day that Bitlicense will be published, but assuming is around this time, after a new low I do believe the trend will be a defined bull trend, going to the moon.


In conclusion, your Elliot waves are falling all into place with the days of the events, so I do think that is possible that the trend will keep following those line, I actually couldn't be surprised if the trend will hit the time and the price you pointed out. I also believe that after testing a new bottom we'll be ready for a new bull trend, in fact 2015 as we discussed previously will be the year of the digital currencies.

Awesome analysis.
+1 Reply
Thank you so much for your extended reply and filling in the gaps of my information.

BearWhale:
I'd like to add that I've seen this behaviour happen before in 2013 on MTGox, there was a 25k BTC sellwall sitting on 266usd took around 8 hours to buy while other exchanges were already buying (making Gox leader), difference is that we were in a bulltrend at that moment but the basics stay the same. So another TinFoil-Hat idea might tell me that Bitstamp is now -hacked / used- like MTGox was back in 2013.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9172834#msg9172834

This comments shows you that Bitstamp still hasn't provided a final audit statement, are we seeying Bitstamp being Goxed?
+1 Reply
feulf NightWish
Possible but highly improbable, Bitcoin cannot survive another Gox of this proportion.
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Ice_ feulf
I'd like to see if something like this happens again.
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"Finishing 2014 in a perfect 5-wave Elliot" - neither is this an Elliot wave at all (break of rule 3), nor do I have an idea why there would be an impulse wave down in what (looking at the rocket over there) you say is a dominant uptrend.

Just my two cents on this idea; stopped caring about anything non-technical in general and ideas suggesting if you are getting into an asset after a 1,165,000% increase you are still "early" in particular.
+3 Reply
Interesting so far at least!
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4800 made me chuckle. I think were in for 500 but it will be a major resistance point.
+1 Reply
and what do you think about litecoin, it will follow btc or die ?
+1 Reply
NightWish ManHent
It will wait for reversal/uptrend confirmation from BTC, as long as it doesn't get that confirmation it will keep going down. I think we are VERY close to hitting the low on LTC (between 15 and 16CNY imo)
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ManHent NightWish
thx, i think simillar
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NightWish jangseohee
Are you just going to keep spamming this in every chart you can find? Highly annoying!
Reply
jangseohee NightWish
Oops i don mean to spam
apologize for that :-)
-1 Reply
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