Potential relief rally setup

gigisulivan Premium Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Considering all my BTC Short setups have completed and exceeded the target ranges, with some calmness returning to equity market and no major events on the economic calendar this week (I don't think J Powell speech on Tuesday will rattle markets to the downside as I think they got a good "reaction" post CPI and he is more likely to keep talking about 50pts int rates hike and being nimble waiting for June CPI numbers), Risk on assets could see some sign of relief this week, maybe even next one too. As always any Long setup bares much higher risk as we are going against a strong trend, but looking at various on-chain metrics, BTC leverage, chart patterns from late January 2022, everything lines up to have a better than 50% chance for Bitcoin to at least reach my long term Weekly trendline (the purple dashed one) so 35-37k range, with small chance of getting closer to 200DMA which will most likely float closer to 42k before/if we get there.

This is definitely not the end of Bear market as some might want you to believe, as always "influencers" jumping on the FOMO wagon trying to convince you worst is over and IMO playing right into the hands of "big players" that will be happy to get retail back in, wait for leveraged longs to build up and dump the market again. As mentioned above this is a higher risk trade, if you wish to take it make sure you are happy holding BTC through further downside if there will be no chance to sell it back in the mentioned above price range.
Comment: BTC struggling to the upside, atm being inline with NASDAQ. Unless we see unemployment rise in US and USD fall further down, it is less and less likely this relief rally will go much further than 31k. If anyone is playing this trade, I'd set a solid stop loss above your entry or just exit the position if in profit.
Trade closed manually: As mentioned on Monday, it did not look likely for BTC to get to my initial target levels and I did exit around 31k taking the short side already few days ago. More data coming from US this week, so will show potential levels where Bitcoin is likely to go next soon

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