Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the four hour chart, you can see that BTC has reached both of my downside targets, at $4970 and $4492. In fact, BTC made a low of $4411, and has since rallied off of that level. So, the $4492 downside target turned out to be a perfect projection, with a whopping 22% decline. However, it's time to figure out where BTC is going from here.
We can see that BTC has rallied off of the $4490 level, but it's currently running into overhead resistance around $4970. So, it's caught between my two former targets. To know the forward direction, we will need to watch those two levels, to see where BTC breaks out from. If BTC confirms support above $5000 (unlikely,) we could see a rally back up to the bottom of the red triangle, around $5535. Keep in mind that we broke down from the triangle, but never really tested it as overhead resistance. So, it's possible that the market could rally back up to that area, to confirm it as overhead resistance. However, as I said, support above $5000 will be required for such a rally to occur.
On the downside, if BTC breaks down below the $4490 area, and especially yesterday's low of $4411, (call it $4400) a massive selloff could ensue. I say "massive," because there is very little support between $4400 and $3000. In the update section below, I will post a view of the daily chart. There, you will see that when BTC broke out above $3000, it didn't hit much resistance until $4490, on it's way up to the all time high. Since there wasn't much resistance on the way up, there isn't likely to be much support on the way down.
Looking at the MACD, we can see that the sell-side momentum is still healthy. It's continuing to expand downward, as price is falling. The sell-side volume on the chart is also very healthy, suggesting that the selling has not been exhausted. Looking again at the MACD, you can see that it's starting to flatten out. If we see a bullish crossover here, and a breakout above $5000, that will be a buy signal, with an expected rally up to the bottom of the red triangle, around $5535. However, I do think it is more likely that we will see a breakdown below $4400, and a continuation of the selloff, potentially reaching as low as $3000 — a level that my long-time followers know I have been warning about. With that said, my short targets were reached, and I am now out of the market, waiting to see which way it moves, before making my next trade. A break below $4400 opens the door to $3000. A break above $5000, opens the door to $5535. A lot of analysts may be saying that BTC is "oversold," but that doesn't mean that it can't become more oversold, or remain in oversold territory. Good luck trading, everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
I've been following you since feb-ish, gotta say I'm pretty impressed the $4000 range materialized. Although they aren't always the happiest for bulls, your charts are consistently the most accurate I've seen. Kudos and happy thanksgiving
mikehobart
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Yo @MagicPoopCannon what're your thoughts on the $3000? It was clearly broken and then retested well, but with the pace of these panic-sells do you see a possible wick into ~2490ish?
Johnnysharp
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good analysis asshole
m4riovolp3
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This German professional from cmc, is expecting 2800$ as the next support... what do u think about that?
Jinbala
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I admit you're really good
Ecua_Trader
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Hm this was easy one. Just a little longer to wait.
ReallyMe
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THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT
This is what happened Nov 2013 - Nov 2015
This is what's been happening Dec 2017 - NOW
danierum
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@ReallyMe, Now compare them in matching timeframe. We are now at "2014 december".