considering bitcoin will be trading at over 1 million dollars per unit in less then 10 years from now youd have to be a absolute complete fool not to buy some right now at 3k
You know there is a cap at 21,000,000 for BTC? and we won't reach it in like 50 years or so, maybe more. so based on your Logic, if we have 20 Million BTC in 2029: (20,000,000 * $1,000,000) = $20,000,000,000,000 (20 Trillion)
the total wealth of the planet earth is "280 Trillion dollars" in 2018. so it would be 14% of planet's today wealth in solely Bitcoin. not other cryptos or assets involved. and unfortunately, almost 50% of the total wealth is in the hands of only 1% of the population. so you should somehow convince all of them to put ALL of their money in Bitcoin. but these people are making 1000% every year by igniting various wars in different regions of the planet and are making TONS of money by selling Weapons and other activities which me and you can not even imagine. For them, it's not about the money, it's all about the Power and control. that's why they are getting in crypto. they want to have control over it.
and for the sake of comparison, the Total value of all Golds and Silvers on the planet is 8.060 trillion dollars.
in other words, $1,000,000 Bitcoin will require a hyperinflation caused by a global catastrophe which will cause the U.S economy and USD to collapse. and I don't think Bitcoin will do any favor for you in that kind of situation.
i honestly think you were joking and beside your price prediction, i totally agree this is the perfect time to buy. maybe it's our last chance.
Poukitoun
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@amir.shahrivar.054, I don’t think that is how market caps work, I unitially thought the same as you until I discovered a few things. The market cap of Bitcoin could be worth trillions with only a few millions invested in as long as all participants agree on a given price in function of a specific supply. That is why sometimes you see some shitcoins do crazy numbers like 8000% in one day, climb to top 10 crypto currency and their market cap jumps to a few billions when actually there are just a few participants which have agreed to sell and buy at a crazy price. Classic dangerous pumps and dumps can be created like that. So let say if for some reason there is a high demand on bitcoin and if the supply is very limited and some are willing to buy it at a much higher price (let say 50k) this would push the price suddenly way higher but without bringing trillions in. So technically Bitcoin could easily jump very high quickly, particularly now that we are at 18millions mined and at least 5 have been lost! There isn’t enough one units of Bitcoin for 18M people. There are 21 million millionaires in the world...
amir.shahrivar.054
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@Poukitoun, some parts of what you say is absolutely right. can't argue about how limited supply and high demand can drive the price up in a crazy manner. but is it sustainable? i think this is where the concept of Relative Strength plays its role. as you mentioned the problem with those shitcoins is the low trading volume. so every single order puts extensive pressure on the price. it can be either upward or downward pressure. but when we talk about something like bitcoin or precious metals we are actually talking about huge daily volumes. when we have huge volumes we can say we already have the people or investors and traders in general, came to an agreement about the price. if they don't, they will stay out of the market and market will stall and try to correct itself. this is happening right now. we see when the price goes up, volume immediately drops. in fewer words, the price and volume should go up together for the price to be sustainable. but more the volume goes up it gets harder and harder to push the price up. it's almost identical to Einstein's Special Relativity, if you want something physical to accelerate more, you'll need to put more energy into it. but the higher the velocity goes, the more energy you'll need to make it accelerate more. this relation is not linear, it's exponential. that's what almost everyone forgets. and don't forget the world's wealth is limited and most part of it is needed to run the economy and "wars" so not much of it can be injected into bitcoin.
for bitcoin to be a store of value, it needs to be stable and sustainable. hopefully, this would be achieved by the increase in trading volume after adoption took place.
and sorry, your argument about supply is not true. there is 21 million Bitcoin to be mined and it's assumed that 30% of it is already lost(?). so we will almost have 15 million Bitcoins in the end. but you forgetting another thing here. bitcoin goes with 8 decimal places. actually, Bitcoin's network only recognizes satoshis. every calculation is made in 8 decimal points. with this in mind, we will have 1500 trillion satoshis which can be distributed among all intelligent species in the galaxy and everyone would be happy.
Poukitoun
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@amir.shahrivar.054, Yes fully agree with you. Regarding the 8 decimals, that is not adding more supply though, it just means there are more divisible units of it which makes it useful for mass adoption. Unlike inflationary fiat currency where you have to readjust the value of the currency to keep the same buying power, that is what is happening in Venezuela. The US dollar goes through the same thing, however since all the rest of world currency is pegged to the US dollar the units of dollar do not get re-adjusted but your buying power is lost over time. Bitcoin remains the best asset in the world for store of value despite its volatility. I think the inflation of Bitcoin is 3.84 per annum and set to halve in the next halving.
Think about Bitcoin as a hard drive of 21TB where space is limited and people are willing to pay to store their data in. Current price for 1KB is $3200, sound quite expensive but that is the only secure storage you have in the world. Other countries create more KB but their efficiency decreases at a rapid pace (Fiat & inflation) so your information is at risk. That is why there is absolute no incentive to store your wealth in cash, you have the same units but your buying power decreases over time. We are at a point of mass awareness and mining difficulty increasing significantly higher> less supply. My bet is that we might see Bitcoin take off to levels we can't even imagine quite rapidly (5 years or so). Particularly when you see all markets worldwide in a dangerous position. Bitcoin as a class asset is a drop in the ocean. Gold seems to be the safe heaven but it is so unpractical for mass adoption and usage particularly in times of crisis. Digital assets make so much sense, particularly digital scarcity.
amir.shahrivar.054
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@Poukitoun, i really liked your metaphor about storage space. i'm gonna steal this one from you and use in my future argument about Bitcoin when i try to convince people about one of its important use cases. so thank you.
your idea about mining difficulty is wrong. higher difficulty don't have any effect on the supply generation rate. i'm a GPU miner with few gpus but i know how it exactly works. you can trust me in this case. Difficulty is implemented into bitcoin mining algorithm so when the number of miners grows higher and as the result, the Hashrate of the network arises, it makes solving the blocks harder. the difficulty readjusts itself by calculating the average blocktime for last 2016 blocks and if the result is higher than 10 mins, it will increase the target difficulty to keep blocktime fixed on 10 mins and vice versa. in other words, only the amount of work required to solve a block will increase; not the Blocktime. the Blocktime is always fixed on 10 minutes. when a block is found, the network will reward the miner who solved it with 12.5 Bitcoins + all transaction Fees included in that block. the only thing that actually affects the mining supply is the halving of Block reward. it'll be halved every 210000 blocks or every 4 years. so in 2020 every block will reward the miners with 6.25 Bitcoins. this will limit the supply and will drive the price higher. you can look this all up in google. i think there is no need for further explanation.
talking about Venezuela, inflation and the devaluation of national currencies, i must say i'm feeling it to the bone in everyday life. i'm from Iran actually.
USDIRR just put the chart to 1Y and try to make sense of it. gonna give you an idea. a construction worker with the average of 12 hours hard work in a day and 6 days a week is paid less than 4$ a day. yeah you read right. 4 freaking dollar per day, not per hour.
so we are the ones who actually NEED cryptos. not talking about just bitcoin, because it won't do much by itself. people here need it. it's indeed better than gold, because you can't have a microgram of gold but you can have a satoshi. but unfortunately, we are getting cut off by many exchanges which follows the U.S Sanction laws. they already took over crypto my friend. they are literally in charge now.
unfortunately again, no one seems to care about these kinda things anymore. it's all about the money and < 10x returns. it's absurd in many ways.
/* this got too long. accept my apologies OP. */
Poukitoun
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@amir.shahrivar.054, the two dangerous things for Bitcoin is if Wall St uses commingling, rehypothecation or basically paper Bitcoin/derivatives but good luck if a fork happens! Not your keys, not your Bitcoin ;)
amir.shahrivar.054
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@Poukitoun, this part of your argument i agree 100%. there are so many leeching on bitcoin without doing any favor for it. but if we put on our optimistic glasses we may say this will bring reputation and recognition to bitcoin.
Poukitoun
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@amir.shahrivar.054, I think the leeching is pure propaganda and only within the masses, Wall Street took time to wake up (some started in 2015) but they really know the potential of crypto currencies, particularly Bitcoin. So I'm pretty sure they will try to enter at the lowest price possible.
I do not worry at all about the future of Bitcoin even if drops to 1k. That would be amazing btw but unlikely in my opinion. Wall Street is not the first time they talk shit about an asset when is crashing to then buy the stocks at the lowest possible. They did that with Microsoft, Ebay, etc.
amir.shahrivar.054
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@Poukitoun, that's the right attitude i think. i'm happy that we're in the same club. since im mining, either way the price moves, I'll be happy. if the price drops further --> more miners will go out --> network hashrate drops --> the difficulty will decrease --> and my income grows. if the price goes up, my capital will grow. this is the beauty of minable POW cryptos. since i'm gpu mining, i won't have to pay much for electricity and the electricity price isn't much in here.
but i obviously will be way happier if the price goes up and lead us to adaption.
i think it's rude to have an argument in someone else's idea, specially when he is not involved anymore. we better stop this. OP is really cool that he didn't throw us out already. :D i thank him and you. and i enjoyed our argument. learned some new things in the process. goodluck.
jordanmorin13
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@amir.shahrivar.054, your simply just plain wrong all bitcoin is going to do is start giving power to the people so that they actually have more control over there wealth thinking of bitcoin as gold 2.0... bitcoin will just replace the market cap for gold..... bitcoin will blow up just like the internet did and 95% of all other crypto coins will eventually die out only a very select few mostly bitcoin are going to survive long term if bitcoin does blow up like the internet did (new technology) then of course we can easily see it at over 20 trillion market cap in less then 10 years and I think that's actually conservative
the total wealth of the planet earth is "280 Trillion dollars" in 2018. so it would be 14% of planet's today wealth in solely Bitcoin. not other cryptos or assets involved. and unfortunately, almost 50% of the total wealth is in the hands of only 1% of the population. so you should somehow convince all of them to put ALL of their money in Bitcoin. but these people are making 1000% every year by igniting various wars in different regions of the planet and are making TONS of money by selling Weapons and other activities which me and you can not even imagine. For them, it's not about the money, it's all about the Power and control. that's why they are getting in crypto. they want to have control over it.
and for the sake of comparison, the Total value of all Golds and Silvers on the planet is 8.060 trillion dollars.
in other words, $1,000,000 Bitcoin will require a hyperinflation caused by a global catastrophe which will cause the U.S economy and USD to collapse. and I don't think Bitcoin will do any favor for you in that kind of situation.
i honestly think you were joking and beside your price prediction, i totally agree this is the perfect time to buy. maybe it's our last chance.