BTCUSD Long, Knifecatch to 74k

Sorry for the lack of posts over the past two weeks, been busy w/ life.

Anyways, I believe this downtrend is nearly over if we consider this recent correct market structure as a running flat.

The only concern with this is that within the b-wave, its ascending triple Elliott wave has an overextended wave Z with a ~1.618 fib level rather than a 1.272 fib as stated on one of the guidelines according to Elliott wave forecast. But ignoring this, it perfectly fits within a running flat corrective wave.

As of now, it seems like it'll end near the primary wave 0.382 fib level at ~54k. But we must hold 51k or else the entire market structure shifts bearish heading to sub 30k levels as it is an invalidation level for wave 3. The oscillator below, the BBWP (Bollinger Bands Width Percentile) is reading a close high of volatility at 90% atm. Going at or above 95 followed by a drop crossing under the associated MA (the white line) will signal the start of a consolidation phase. I didn't include it in this chart, but there is also a momentum bullish divergence on the 1 hour that growing has yet to be confirmed with a crossover of the zero line.

Key levels:

SUPPORT
- Primary wave 0.382 fib at 54k
- M CPR Pivot at 54k
- 3 Month Value Area High at 51k
- 3 Month PoC at 47k
- Lower Parallel Channel at 53k

RESISTANCE
- Confluence of multiple monthly value areas at 59k
- Monthly Value Area High at 65k
- M CPR R1 at 66k
- Long term trendline since March ATH at 67-68k
- Intermediate wave 5 target at 74k
- M CPR R2 at 78k

INVALIDATION
- Primary wave 3 0.5 fib at 51k

There are more levels to look at on the chart if you are interested in long-term plays.

I will post an interesting chart soon, so be on the lookout for it.

Comment:

I didn't include the bullish divergence oscillator considering how on high timeframes (2 hour +)it didn't present itself divergences and saw more value in presenting indicators that show indication of consolidation.

Exocharts has recently printed a couple of bullish divergences on the CVD chart along with the first massive bearish liquidation in a while. A 8 hour close within the developing week value area (sitting between 61.5k and 57.3k) followed by holding the naked PoC at 60k increases the likelihood of a reversal.

Link to exochart:
imgur.com/a/1tUcN3d

Comment:

Forgot to mention, I won't post active trades for a while as I don't have the time to actively manage them if the trend changes. But definitely get out if the invalidation level gets hit.

Comment:

Bearish momentum divergence on the weekly candle. Things are not looking good

Comment:

Invalidation level nearly hit, that minor v-shape recovery is hopeful and may be the start of a reversal.

Comment:

Invalidation level hit, but upon further inspection, it is not an invalidation level of the intermediate impulse wave as the high at 69k ended with a momentum divergence. Given this, I believe we are in a larger primary wave 2 correction that seems to have found support around the 0.618 level. But it is completely open for corrections until 28k.

Key levels to look for if we are truly in an impulse wave:
37K, 33k

Comment:

Expect another low if we go under 49.5k

Comment:

Bitcoin currently is showing major signs of manipulation in the form of bids/asks being spread out across in the form of bands on several exchanges. Indicators also showing signs of manipulation, expect an explosive 15K move if BTC closes under 47k closes today.
More than likely this will happen after we’ve consolidated for a bit similar to when manipulation was detected back in May and we had a 10k move in late July.