In this video I show my theory on what's probably happening with BTCUSD.
It appears that Bitcoin is being used to hedge against the US Dollar crashing.
$22,000 is certain in sight and who knows it could get to $30,000 sooner than anyone might imagine.
I still think that BTC is too volatile for my liking and therefore I've stayed out. I've been happy to avoid FOMO. I've lost nothing.
I think that many will profit from a possible further charge north. But there is also still a risk that it BTC could reverse significantly.
Best wishes for the Christmas period 🎅and have a Happy Prosperous New Year. 🥂🎁
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For anybody trading an inherently very volatile instrument like BTC (and others such as exotic currency pairs), the big issue is loss control. I am not personally in trade on BTC. For me, it's too risky and loss control difficult in my own methodology - so I'm out of it. I'm quite happy for those who made their money, by different strategies.
My analysis covers only one possible contributory factor. A non-linear analysis of numerous contributory factors was not practicable. Where there are multiple factors affecting the price action of any instrument, everybody is right to some degree. But the objective of trading is not to be right about anyone aspect.
Whilst a part of my analysis looked into a theoretical aspect of fundamentals, I'm primarily a technical trader. I focus on trends and sentiment. BTC price action is useful for my learning. It is not uncommon for trends to become visible only at a later stage of their development.
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The bets are on! $30,000 within the next 24 hours? 🤣
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3-day time frame. I have a bad feeling about this.
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Well there was good trouble indeed. Price has busted past $30,000 like nobody's business.
I think even 50,000 may come pretty quickly (not a prediction). I say so because of the effect of the news i.e. the average Joe or Jane will be affected and follow in. They don't know what's what, so they'll probably be thinking I better put $100 or whatever they think can afford to lose. That 'mass-effect' of a crowd trying to get a piece of the action, is what could all add up.
The chart has certainly gone exponential, in what seems to be a 4H ATR trend.
We saw temporary consolidations in that trend. This means it is superheated and in frenzy-mode.
We know this is gonna end in bad news for a majority. We just don't know when.
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Update on the big picture
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Well, 30,00 has come and gone. What's next? How would I know. I let trends do the 'hard work'.
Its apparent from your posts on BTC that you don't understand it. Here you have just explained how dollar denominated assets relative prices rise and fall in accordance with the value of the dollar. Basic.
Captain_Walker
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@JoelWarby, I'm always willing to learn more from those who know more.
JoelWarby
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@Captain_Walker, Recent bull run is essentially a story of supply and demand. 900 new bitcoins are mined per day (approx), while in some days just one buyer (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust for example) will purchase more than 1500+ bitcoins. Not to count every other buyer in the market.
Its one of the largest asymmetric supply / demand dynamics in history.
@JoelWarby, any sort of price move is supply and demand :) I'm sure you understand Bitcoin, however, @Captain_Walker was on to something with comparing it to the DXY. The recent bull run on BTC is to do with investors looking to hedge risk against dollar curency devaluation and the immenent collapse of the US, and other, global economies. Supporting the growth case for BTC is when you consider Paypal and Square announced adoption and purchase of BTC. Backed by VISA silently in the background this is a signifant move for both new age and traditional forms of financial transactions. Eventually I suspect countries being affected by the strengthening or weakening of the dollar will move towards BTC and others will follow.
Thanks for taking the time to share.
JoelWarby
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@stefanjagger, Hi... I don't like to be rude but some of the points you mentioned are fanciful.
stefanjagger
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@JoelWarby, hi, no problem... everybody has their opinions and it's good to hear others. A lot in investing is hypothetical, based on the information we have today. I just don't believe the value is going up simply because there are less coins available each day. That's a factor for sure but not the main driver. I hope we're both right.
Captain_Walker
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@stefanjagger, Importantly for me, is that I don't need to find out the main or contributory drivers. In technical analysis and trend following, I simply not interested. I only posted a theory. It may be totally wrong.
JoelWarby
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@Captain_Walker, I find it beneficial to understand the fundamental reasons driving price action. Only by understanding the mechanics of markets can you truly anticipate risk. When understood properly risk is much more than a pip number or a key level.
And especially when operating in the financial markets (but in any aspect of life), the more knowledge you have - the better decisions you will make. I don't want to be critical because I think anyone contributing to the conversation or imparting their view on the markets should be commended. You clearly put a lot of effort into the videos you make, but I think you should be interested to understand drivers of price action in order to create the best analysis.