More boring days coming! 200 SMA about to peak after 4 years
Hello traders and fellow gamblers!
200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) peaked 4 years ago on June 8th. Next peak might be very near. Unless we start a rally like the one we had in November (purple arrow), 200SMA is going to mark its ATH soon (likely next week) with a relatively sharp peak. It would be cool if it peaks on June 7th, after 4 full years, the day after June 6th (see linked TA for June 6th importance). (yum yum, incoming fresh food for my tinfoil theories :D)
200 SMA is probably the most important SMA because it shows the long term trend. Investors do not like 200 SMA that is bending down. I don't expect smart money flowing in until 200 SMA bottoms which will take at least 2 months to form if price stays around the current range(7k to 8k). Green zones in the chart show potential bottoming zones for 200 SMA.
200 Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is also about to peak. See this chart for historical info about these indicators.
Based on these 2 simple indicators, I don't expect good days for BTC for at least 2 months. At best we would range below 12k. There are many bullish and bearish arguments. I personally am leaning bearish med term until we make a higher high. See my previous TA (linked at the bottom) for bullish and bearish scenarios.
Do you think this is all just a coincidence (4 years, near June 6th)?
Don't forget to like if you want to see more analysis like this.
Thanks to all of you who help me on my journey of learning TA.
/:D
Image version of the chart:
PS:
While playing with numbers, I realized that 7 days' candles are missing from Bitfinex's BTC chart starting from August 2 2016. So be careful using this chart for long term trendlines. There are some gaps in Bitstamp chart as well. Best ticker for long term BTC is BNC:BLX.
Bragging part :D
Play the chart below and my other TAs :D
200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) peaked 4 years ago on June 8th. Next peak might be very near. Unless we start a rally like the one we had in November (purple arrow), 200SMA is going to mark its ATH soon (likely next week) with a relatively sharp peak. It would be cool if it peaks on June 7th, after 4 full years, the day after June 6th (see linked TA for June 6th importance). (yum yum, incoming fresh food for my tinfoil theories :D)
200 SMA is probably the most important SMA because it shows the long term trend. Investors do not like 200 SMA that is bending down. I don't expect smart money flowing in until 200 SMA bottoms which will take at least 2 months to form if price stays around the current range(7k to 8k). Green zones in the chart show potential bottoming zones for 200 SMA.
200 Smoothed Moving Average (SMMA) is also about to peak. See this chart for historical info about these indicators.
Based on these 2 simple indicators, I don't expect good days for BTC for at least 2 months. At best we would range below 12k. There are many bullish and bearish arguments. I personally am leaning bearish med term until we make a higher high. See my previous TA (linked at the bottom) for bullish and bearish scenarios.
Do you think this is all just a coincidence (4 years, near June 6th)?
Don't forget to like if you want to see more analysis like this.
Thanks to all of you who help me on my journey of learning TA.
/:D
Image version of the chart:
PS:
While playing with numbers, I realized that 7 days' candles are missing from Bitfinex's BTC chart starting from August 2 2016. So be careful using this chart for long term trendlines. There are some gaps in Bitstamp chart as well. Best ticker for long term BTC is BNC:BLX.
Bragging part :D
Play the chart below and my other TAs :D
Comment:
I just wanted to clarify that the green zones in the chart are not price bottoming zones as stated in the OP. They are potential periods for SMA200 bottoms.
Comment:
An article for those who are certain about their view on market direction. Even Hyman Minsky is a bipolar when it comes to Crypto.
www.newsbtc.com/2018...c-is-on-the-horizon/
www.newsbtc.com/2018...c-is-on-the-horizon/
Comment:
Correction: Joost van der Burgt (policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) not Hyman Minsky
Comment:
Comment:
June 3rd, 10291 is a candidate peak for SMA 200. We will find out soon.
Comment:
BTC volume yesterday was 51.3k. It's the lowest since Apr 16 2017 according to data.bitcoinity...rkets/volume/5y?r=day&...
Since 2014-05-19 there were only 5 days with lower volume than yesterday's. Not that this volume is in terms of BTC not USD.
I said more boring days coming but I didn't expect this boring. Anyhow, it's weekend and it's expected to some extent. We MIGHT see some more action on Monday.
Since 2014-05-19 there were only 5 days with lower volume than yesterday's. Not that this volume is in terms of BTC not USD.
I said more boring days coming but I didn't expect this boring. Anyhow, it's weekend and it's expected to some extent. We MIGHT see some more action on Monday.
Comment:
I think it is quite safe to declare our first candidate, June 3rd, as the peaking day for SMA 200. BTC made a double top. First top coincides with this day (June 3rd), and the second top coincides with the 4th anniversary of SMA200 peaking day. If you play the chart, you will notice that price started declining when it entered the red zone.
It is still too soon to judge and close the case, BTC has some chance of making a higher highs (30% as of now).
PS: we should think about some tinfoil theories about these coincidences when things are settled a bit more.
It is still too soon to judge and close the case, BTC has some chance of making a higher highs (30% as of now).
PS: we should think about some tinfoil theories about these coincidences when things are settled a bit more.
Comment:
Yesterday's candle close was the lowest since mid-November 2017 @6436.
Peter Brandt a few days ago tweeted: "All markets: Never trust how markets gyrate to and from during session. The close is the only thing that matters. Ignore volatility."
twitter.com/PeterLBr.../1005129106076422145
Based on candle open/close, we might have a different market structure as show in this chart:
Peter Brandt a few days ago tweeted: "All markets: Never trust how markets gyrate to and from during session. The close is the only thing that matters. Ignore volatility."
twitter.com/PeterLBr.../1005129106076422145
Based on candle open/close, we might have a different market structure as show in this chart:
Comment:
A close view of the green line on Bfx:
