Bitcoin: All roads lead to $2500

Since the end of November BTC has been trapped inside a equilateral triangle - a hugely significant one, since it is formed along the falling wedge which has been a powerful factor in BTC since March 2018. We are currently 8 weeks (or 73%) into a maximum of 11 weeks before the equilateral triangle converges. Since breakouts most often occur 75-80% into triangles, a huge move up or down is likely imminent.

Consider:

• We have been in an undeniable bear market for over 12 months, and have never seen a higher high throughout that time.
  Seeing another lower low is therefore FAR more likely.
  
• The next level of support is $2500, dating back to June/July 2017. Below that, $1910 from the same period.
  
• The already slim chance of the SolidX/VanEck ETF being approved on Feb 27th is almost zero with the current US government shutdown.
  

I suspect we will use the current daily momentum to move up to $4000 in the coming days, before descending back down as normal, before breaking out of the triangle to the next support level at $2500. If the bears are fully in control, we might not even make it to $4000 and head directly to $2500.

Should we (miraculously) make a higher high for the first time in a year, we will be met with huge resistance at the following price points:

• $5000 (the top of the falling wedge)
  
• $5500 (previous support, now resistance)
  
• $6000 (previous HUGE support, now HUGE resistance)
  

We will then fall under bear pressure at numerous resistance areas (never going over $6000) until eventually coming down to $2500 regardless. The ETF rejection will only hasten such a drop, probably in the days leading up rather than actually on Feb 27th, since those in the know always seem to take advantage of such knowledge.

Do you agree? Where do you believe BTC will breakout to? I'm curious to know your thoughts too!

Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting.
This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

Comment:

We continue to bounce tightly along the base of the converging triangle, with steadily reducing volume... a breakout in either direction is imminent in the coming days. However both the daily and weekly Stoch RSI are indecisive, offering no clear momentum in either direction.

This is a very risky time to trade, with a high reward/loss on the table - if you do trade long or short, ALWAYS have a stop loss in place. Better to miss an opportunity than catch a loss... there will always be many more opportunities.

Comment:

With BTC unable to hold above $4000, I consider the above as valid as ever. Whether you are intending to move out to Tether, buy into altcoins at the dip, or just HODL... have your plans in place. Be ready.