Bitcoin eventually followed the short-term formation I posted a week ago, and hit the $9400 target.
The Falling Wedge has been broken to the upside and since the price is still within the Channel Up pattern on the 1D chart, it turns bullish on the short-term.
On top of that the LMACD has made a clear Bullish Cross and if BTC forms another green 1D candle tomorrow (unlike the last time of the LMACD bullish cross), I expect to fill up the gaps left of the Lower Highs of the broken Falling Wedge. Those are $9750 and $10000.
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Yep, need to wait to see where today's candle closes out fer sure... BTC is in a bullish trend since the pandemic related crash in March... these smaller formations you're looking at are valuable for day trading or very short swing trades alright... but they really can't tell us much about the larger trend which is seen in a longer time frame. This section you're analyzing is just consolidation noise within that longer time frame and can't really tell us if it's going to break up or down from here relative to the longer trend. BTC tends to respect the BB fairly well until it gets really volatile. It's been relatively quiet of late so I'd expect if it rises throughout today and again tomorrow that it will likely fall back again once it reaches the upper BB and tags it or slightly breaks above it UNLESS there is some type of major stimulus to send it out of range (8500-10500) one way or the other. In whuch case then the BB will not be respected at all of course and will instead be chasing after BTC getting much wider.
Another factor that can't be seen on your chart TS is that the MA20 had a bearish cross below the MA50 back on June 28th. In my way of thinking this takes some of the steam out of the notion it may rise significantly as a result of it breaking above that falling wedge line you've aptly identified.
TradingShot
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@cosmicnexus, Good point nex. Let's see if it touches the dotted curve again on this pull back and then rebounds. So far this is still an uptrend for me.
Always enjoy reading your analysis. Thanks so much. I particularly like the wave count in the 4 hour chart and it inspired me to look at it a little further myself.
I think the 4 hr chart is more significant for the short term action and it is still looking bearish, imo. I see a declining channel and bearish 3 wave fractal patterns repeating within it. If the upper line of resistance continues to hold and contain price within the channel, then it will be just a matter of time until it breaks back down below the neckline of the H&S, making it the focal macro structure in the chart. This H&S structure is forecasting a price breakdown to at least $7,317, which coincides with a 1.618 corrective Elliott C-wave projection.
Note:
1) The MACD is rolling over;
2) Volume is still weak, under the MA; and
3) The lower-high trend is intact.
In fact, price just collapsed to the neckline as I was posting this.
Another factor that can't be seen on your chart TS is that the MA20 had a bearish cross below the MA50 back on June 28th. In my way of thinking this takes some of the steam out of the notion it may rise significantly as a result of it breaking above that falling wedge line you've aptly identified.