DanV
Short

BTCUSD - FURTHER SHORT TERM WEAKNESS IN STORE WITH TARGET OF 210

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I wish to update the last chart I publish little over 2 weeks ago with suggestion that 210 could be potential downside target.

Well we are progressing well towards that target though the price action is little puzzling in that the counts are not conforming to what we anticipated.

This will require review of price action since 150 low and feel we could have larger wave 4 retracement to upside still in progress as shown in our roadmap we have been following for sometime on Daily time frame.

Therefore, the review of what happens once we drop to 210 zone will be of great interest and will explain this in subsequent charts and may be a recording.

For now I trust this will be of interest to you

Disclaimer: All of my work above could be completely wrong, so please use or disregard it at your discretion.

As, always please do your own analysis for your requirement. Select to follow me and the charts for notification of any updates. If you like the analysis show this by thumbs up and constructive comments or alternative ideas for all to learn from.

Thanks for taking the time to view my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
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Hello, thank you for analysis, but do you trade BTC for real?
Reply
Hi Thankyou for your question. I do trade BTC on very small account setup with donated coins by some friends here in the Tradingview Community.

Before I started to trade, many dismissed my analysis because they felt what do I know about Bitcoin, whilst others said that my analysis could be relied upon as I do not have vested interest.

So not sure what prompted you to ask that question, however I hope this answers it.
+3 Reply
AA50 DanV
It was just out of my curiosity. Many renowned traders here, such as you and Technician, publish their ideas about BTC. I just wanted to know of whether they trade it for real. The reason is that they are forex traders originally. That is what prompted me to ask it. Anyway, thank you.

Reply
No problem.

I do Forex but not necessarily limited to that. I do Stocks, Indices, and commodities and lots of intermarket analysis of correlation and ratio analysis too. Began doing this in early 1990s

But I understand you question. To be honest even the most ardent Bitcoiner if this is the initial financial instruments they have charted or traded would probably only have the skill and knowledge of chart analysis for 3-4 year maximum. Lots of this was seen in moon shot charts leading up to Nov 2013 high and has continued till now though in less intensity.

But I digress. Thankyou for your comments. I appreciate it.
Reply
AA50 DanV
I do think price will be seen around 130$ someday.

As for BTC price action, some say the price of BTC price is always manipulated. In fact, I am totally clueless about what drives a price action, since BTC has no value other than the fact that people can buy goods with it.

And BTC is in practice not a currency, but a innovative way to transfer money.

You know, when people buy goods with BTC, they first buy BTC with fiat, and send them to sellers. Sellers who receive the payment in BTC will dump it shortly thereafter for fiat. So, I do not know what actually moves price in this regard.

BTC market is quite illiquid, and since it is traded across many different exchanges at different price, it may be more so.

To tell my strange experience, when I was just looking at order books on OKcoin.cn, I saw 900BTC ask order placed, and price plunged 2% shortly thereafter. I did not know why it happened. but quite unique market BTC is. Perhaps it is manipulated as some have asserted.
Reply
I agree with you 100%.

It is relatively thin market or low Capital Value, and in such market it is not too difficult for well resourced individual or organisation to manipulate the price as they do in varying degree in all markets.

It would seem there are many clever ones who could explain all about BTC, however, despite all this it has not supported the price it has continue to drop from ATH. So that high was attained by clear manipulation and taking advantage euphoric sentiment that existed then.

Whether it could fulfil all that it is meant to or potentially intended remains to be seen.

For now it is just another financial instrument like others and same humans (nature) as category trades it as they do other markets. Hence that is the element which enables us to analyse as their behaviours are expressed in price charts as they react to news events and others factors that translate into resulting price fluctuation.

I cannot add any further insight into this than that. But it was interesting to read your comments and hope I have at least given some useful explanation though not necessarily definitive one.
Reply
AA50 DanV
Thank you for a reply. In every event, no matter whether it is manipulated, I think traders goal is to make profit.
+1 Reply
Agreed with you 100%
Reply
@Singleton
Excellent discussion... you finally seem to get the idea about bitcoin price.. this is why i never follow analysts who are biased like miners or bagholders.. i prefer to read charts done by forex and other commodities analysts as they are neutral..
Just make sure not to "marry" to one trade or follow like a cultist because you'll lose more money or end up a bagholder... i see a lot of biased bitcoin analysts who keep chanting moonshots those are the ones you should stay away from...
+1 Reply
DanV MOD blackswan
That is a very good point, to be willing to change view based on price data since there appears to be ever present Moonshot launchers and now even some ever bearish ones too.

Thanks for your comments.
Reply
You should open up your mind a bit more. Try look at it in another way. Anything that has demand and supply can be traded.
Reply
DanV MOD mic.kimani
@ mic.kimani not quite following your comments. I am not against trading what you refer to as supply and demand.

But I don't get what you mean by "opening my mind bit more". May be missing something.
Reply
I was refering to singleton's comment Quote

"As for BTC price action, some say the price of BTC price is always manipulated. In fact, I am totally clueless about what drives a price action, since BTC has no value other than the fact that people can buy goods with it.

And BTC is in practice not a currency, but a innovative way to transfer money.

You know, when people buy goods with BTC, they first buy BTC with fiat, and send them to sellers. Sellers who receive the payment in BTC will dump it shortly thereafter for fiat. So, I do not know what actually moves price in this regard. "

In my opinion is, once you start thinking about money/value differently, then questions about 'what moves it' aren't valid objections anymore. The supply is constant, its free floating and open to willing participants. That is enough.
Reply
DanV MOD mic.kimani
Ahh I see what you mean.

However, I think he seems to have made a valid point in that it is not quite easy to explain some price action in traditional way but to trade ups and down.
Reply
yes "traditional"

I hear a lot of similar objections from Forex traders for example. Maybe a mindset that is hard to snap out of for some after having traded fiat currencies for so long
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
Hey, I don't wish to debate words and have no objections for any who wish to think differently fro "traditional" whatever that means.

It seems that you have a dim view of forex fiat traders.

Well you can focus and keep your mind open on things non fiat. I wish all go well for you. But then you will have your mind closed to other things which goes against your original statement of keeping mind open. Unless you mean to say that we should support this non fiat idea more for price to rise. Well I will leave that to supply and demand element to handle. My wishing it will make no difference.

Anyway thanks for your comments. All the best.
Reply
Thanks for the analysis DanV!
Seems like BTC got past the upper line now?
Reply
Yes, thank you for your comment and question.

In fact the line I drew was too optimistic and in fact now it is at better more proportional area and the idea is still valid ie we could see a top made in this area and would now begin to weaken towards 210 zone in due course as shown in the chart below
snapshot
+4 Reply
What time frame are you suggesting to see this weaken?
Reply
That is rather difficult to be specific though it we are likely to be topping around 240 zone for this falling wedge pattern then we are there so could hang around here for short while and drift lower or might do one more minor spike before dropping meaning it could be next 24 hrs or little longer.
+1 Reply
Thanks for the reply DanV. Your analysis is one of few BTC analyses that I follow.
Cheers!
Reply
Thankyou and you are welcome.
Reply
Hey Dan, any update with today's drop? :)
best
Reply
DanV MOD oldstout
Hi thanks for your question.

Still following the anticipated price action to 210-200 but are on partial retrace before further drop as per the chart below.
snapshot
+2 Reply
Hello, DanV. I'm wondering would large wave C from Jan 2014 be an impulse wave?
Reply
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