I usually only post pattern + indicator trade ideas, but sometimes the most simple thinking leads to great ideas.
So... is it really the start for the bulls? Perhaps. But who are we to know that?
Today we got a manipulated pump to 8k because of a simple game, that whales have been playing since forever.
There is a reason history repeats itself in a very similar way, for example bubble charts. In a bubble chart human emotions including ENTHUSIASM, HYPE and GREED are the kickstarters for epic growth. But with every rise there is always a downfall which trigger other human emotions: DENIAL and FEAR.
The pink twirly line I drew indicate small bullish moments that happened from February untill now. Each time a bullish momentum happens, we get hyped up thinking there is a slim chance we go in a full bull market. This happened around 5 times in the past 2 months and after each time we get dissapointed because of bearish continuation. So... here we are today, people thinking; "THIS TIME IT COULD BE REAL, RIGHT??", "WE WERE RIGHT, THE LAST BOTTOM WAS 6k", "BULL SEASON STARTED", "LOOK AT THIS INSANE PUMP PEOPLE ARE BUYING".
So I don't think I need to explain what would happen if this time AGAIN after 5 times it doesn't happen. People will get dissapointed, some just give up and sell, shorts that got liquidate before the pump and that turned to longs after the pump will end up losing AGAIN. The whales are manipulating your psychological behaviour over and over, because average human behaviour does not change. Which give them power to control the market HOW and WHEN they like it, they are not in a hurry. If there is free money to grab, they will grab it because, they know how to play the human ACTION and REACTION game.
Just my simple thoughts, but hey! Who am I to be correct? I am not a whale.
(This is not financial advice, this is a volatile market where anything can happen)
It sucks that I missed the pump from 6800 , but if I was in, I would pull out my money right Fu_kin now! This HFT pump is BS! It will far faster and harder than before! One time I lost 1k when it slammed so hard down so fast my stop loss didn't even trigger cuz it didn't give it enough time to insert on order book. That is the risk people are facing right now if their stop limits are too dam tight! They have to be wide , largely gapped to give it time to insert your order for a limit sell with your stop loss! Live and learn. ! But this is a dangerous moment imo! Take your money and run people while you still have it! Buy on the huge dive coming again! This is not a bull run to me at all. This bullish manipulated HFT whale pump means nothing to me! It you are fooled this is an official bullish reversal. NO way in hell! We are still in bear trend!
FUDDER
⋅
@CryptoBuzzAnalyst, That is also a good perspective of thinking that could be very true.
ss44
⋅
I agree with your sentiment and its the total art of the trap. But there's always the other trap of getting stuck of being a perma-bear or bull. Ideally most of these things are only available to us in hindsight to know what was really what, and at times of uncertainty such as now (are we out? are we not?) to wait for the confirmations.
But this also means losing on the volatility and gains these times bring.
FUDDER
⋅
@ss44, Well said! That is very true. Are we out? or are we not? You can wait for a confirmation for bullish or bearish and be safe. This indicates that you have risk management, which will give you a stable profit in the long run.
Or like you said, you can can just go blind in and hope for it and get quick money from the volatility. But lets not forget, money that comes quick could also leave equally fast and that is the risk you are willing to take if you it this way.
ss44
⋅
@FUDDER, for sure. The mental game of trading is by far its own thing and in my mind greater than just being able to identify fractals or count waves. It has been my biggest learning curve.
Thank you for your posts. Looking forward to more.
FUDDER
⋅
@ss44, Great to hear that, I wish you the best of luck! Thank you for your insights.
supestv
⋅
Except that the 4 HR OBV clearly indicates a trend reversal. Those fake-outs you described happened when OBV was still on a downward trend. This time it's different because OBV has turned bullish.