TheKujiras
Long

DotCom vs Crypto Bubble

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Just showing comparisons and similarities in market cycle.
Amazing work! thank you.
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Playing out nicely thus far. If you look at the Yume Wave (bottom indicator) you can see we should expect a pop up to the top, before a reset of the wave. This should be near the $6k mark before we have a wave reset back to the Miaku and then leg 2 can begin.
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**short since 12/7/17-Present**

The reason why this comparison is flawed and we likely have a lot more room to fall....stocks can be valued, cryptos, cannot. Over +1500 crypto-coins and no one can give me a good reason to own '1' -- expect to gamble (the reasons why 99% of people own it). It's an easy short.

Wrote on 8/9/18: "Just to reiterate my current view on Bitcoin , right now $5,800 is the level to watch. If it can't hold this level and sustain a run from there ( volume will be key to monitor), in all likelihood, Bitcoin will test ~$3K."

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TheKujiras Akhokhar86
@Akhokhar86

If you want to say that stock value can be measured, then yes - but only by their current assets and the current value of the company / the number of shares. That would be an exact. These current market prices have and always will be based on future speculation much like cryptocurrency adoption.

Internet value couldn't be measured in the beginning because there was very little adoption, it was expensive to use, and it was slow. However, investing in projects positioned for growth in internet's future would have been extremely beneficial to your portfolio in 1991.

My point is that cryptocurrency and blockchain project value can be measured by level of demand in relation to supply like everything with value. When a new method of process or improvement to the existing norm is created, it has the ability to dramatically increase demand. When supply is limited, the price increases with demand. Stocks are no different.

Baseball cards have zero use-case value, however certain cards are in limited supply, and the demand is high - thus their price goes up.


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Akhokhar86 TheKujiras
@TheKujiras, The internet offered the world real value, just like the blockchain. However, buying Bitcoin isn't the same thing. Many don't understand that. It's not like buying an MSFT, AMZN, AAPL, etc. It's a hope that our current fiat system collapses and the world moves to Bitcoin as a reserve currency. I don't think it's going to happen. Remember the most powerful people on this planet think Bitcoin is going to zero (#davos). I have no idea what will happen, so I hedge my bets.

I agree that we are in like 1994 of this crypto-boom....and people are far too optimistic.
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TheKujiras Akhokhar86
@Akhokhar86, that's strictly one asset type. Saying that cryptocurrency will make it is hoping that current fiat systems fail is like saying email will make it and make letter couriers obsolete. They can co-exist and should. It's definitely possible that bitcoin will go to zero, but keep in mind that it has been said about bitcoin year over year since inception.

Take a look at numbers for user adoption in crypto vs early internet, as well as number of internet assets (website/databases) in comparison to number of blockchain assets (cryptocurrencies, OS's, databases). You'll see an almost identical pattern. And yes, people were very optimistic in 1994 for internet, but look how it played out. Every company was at a 3-6x valuation from the end of the crash cycle to today. We are currently playing out a classic text-book crash cycle and nearing the end.

I can DM you links to a few crypto vs internet use-case and adoption charts. They are near identical and quite fascinating.
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Akhokhar86 TheKujiras
@TheKujiras, Thanks, yes send it over.

Either way, I own some small amount of crypto as a gamble because I have no idea what will happen.

Keep in mind that the crypto world before and after Dec-17 are completely different. Regulators and Wall Street got involved for the first time. Cryptos are now in its longest bear market ever.
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Nice analysis and comparison
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@cedarfox, thank you :)
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In Dot com bubble everyone gave up. In crypto people are still buying shitcoins at the "bottom".
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