BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Been a while since we've seen a real correction. Order books are looking thin on the buy side for the first time in a while and we're seeing a fractal top repeat from back in June:


For now, I'm not sure how far it will go, it could just fall to 3900-4000 and bounce upward again. If it does break through that 3900 trend line , I wouldn't be surprised if it broke back down to the bottom of this larger channel at 3000 before seeing a larger bounce.

Rising wedge formed.

Broke above the trend line for under 2 hours and then fell back over 5%. It did fail to get over 5k, which I suppose was inevitable on its first try, especially after having climbed over 15% in the last 2 days just to get to this point. It hasn't broken down below the supporting trend lines or notable moving averages, so it is still in the game to try and push past 5k unless we see a bigger dump.
Comment: Stopped short of the first target, looks like we're going to see a nice bounce up to 4450-4650 to form a right shoulder before moving down again. This all follows the fractal from June after the pullback from $3,000

Comment: Brushed up into the green box, just under 4500. I'm not sure where the target is on the way down yet. There is the possibility for a V shape reversal, similar to the pattern on July 17th, which would have us bounce before 4300 and then launch upwards back to 4800-5k. The other possibility is the continuation into a second, deeper dip. The could have us bottoming somewhere around 3600-3700
Comment: Due to the Weekly RSI and MACD looking maxed out and signaling a potential reversal, I'd like to think that any big move during the next couple of weeks will likely be down with a lot of sideways. If correlating between this fractal and the fractal from June, we shouldn't make it above 4650 before we start sliding off again. We may not even make it that far.


Heading down for another dip. I've got two targets, 3700-3750 and 3300-3400. I think that 3700 is much more likely based on a trend line that has been quite well defined over the last few months.

I think we will bounce of this trend line, form a right shoulder Just like we did in June, and then slide off of it back down to 3300-3400 before a larger bounce and continuation of the trend.

I've made a mistake. We've already seen the double dip from that last dump. If the fractal plays out like it did in June, this is what it will likely look like

Looking for a bounce off of the middle trend line. Target 3500.
imo it could also be more a sideways movement with a maximum correction around 4000. maybe helpful:
+1 Reply
ajdourgarian btcinvests, maybe, but going off of previous fractals, I'm thinking a correction down to somewhere near 3500 before potentially moving to 7500 is more likely than not
btcinvests ajdourgarian
@ajdourgarian, thx for your comment. we will see. between 4000 and 3500 is not so much different. :-)
+1 Reply
ajdourgarian btcinvests, Especially with a possible next target of 7500 :D
btcinvests ajdourgarian
very very tricky...i hope it will go back up ...thanks for this great job !
+1 Reply
I agree. There is a MACD divergence which is a strong (high probability) indicator for a trend to change.
So, it's a "sell" now and buy again in pieces at around 3900, 3500 and 3100 if the forecast is verified (30% down).
+2 Reply
is this still valid?
+1 Reply
@tshah, the thing I had going with the fractal is dead, but this idea stands until we break close the trend line which is at 4900 right now.
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