ninjabenja
Short

Symmetrical triangle break down looming + Advanced patterns

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
There is a lot going on in the chart above. The larger pattern (light green) is a symmetrical triangle which will break in the direction of the over-all trend, about 75% of the time. Confirmation will be a daily candle closing either above or below the pattern. Inside the triangle we've got two measured moves AB=CD (green arrows and red arrows) as well as an incomplete Bullish Bat pattern and incomplete Bearish Cypher . Price is threatening to drop out of the triangle which would lead us to expect a price decline to support. Based on the SCMR             dynamic levels, that would be near $227 and then $217.

If the Bat completes at point D, bullish reversal targets are at .382 and .618 of the distance XA. (See chart in comments for recent example) ... If the Cypher completes, targets are .382 and .618 of the distance XC. For more detailed information on bat patterns go here: http://www.harmonictrader.com/price_patternsbat.htm ... For more on Cyphers, go here: https://youtu.be/Tc8ORH2ox0A

Target level for trading the symmetrical triangle is drawn from the the first touch on the lower line to the top of the upper line, then that distance is taken as a measured move from where price breaks out of the pattern. In this instance, that would be around the $180 level. ... For more on Symmetrical Triangle patterns, see here: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation

We've had some real strong bullish opportunities lately and to a one, they've rotted on the vine. On May 4th, the first bitcoin hedge fund ( GBTC             ) went live, trading hundreds over market price for the equivalent of 1 bitcoin , with 1 share being equal to .1 btc . The week of trading which preceded the launch saw only a $19 move up in price. Week of the launch, saw an over-all price decline. We've also now seen a Swedish ETN             launch with little to no major movement in market price. Instead, what we're seeing is price beginning to steadily slump.
Here is a pretty typical Bullish Bat pattern trade, which just finished playing out on Bitfinex. Price reversed at completion ( D point) and if you were to take two targets on this pattern- #1 would be 50% would be at .382 retrace, move stops then #2 at .618 for the remainder.
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+3 Reply
blackswan
2 years ago
i love your analysis. this is how a truly professional trader shares his insights. keep up the good work!
+1 Reply
soap
2 years ago
Now is Bullish Bat pattern ?
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ninjabenja PRO soap
2 years ago
Good question. Short answer, not yet. While I have observed many advanced patterns in BTC that stall out just short of 'D' completion only to reverse straight to targets; technically speaking we should be waiting for price to tag our 'D' completion level @ 218.70 (bitstamp). Once completed, a conservative long entry would be taken after printing a higher-high bar. A more aggressive entry long would be right at 'D' completion. In this instance, because my TSI indicator shows no hint of crossing yet, I'll be waiting for the pattern to fully complete and confirm. We could easily see some throw over past 'D' the SCMR dynamic support level (green plus/crosses on the chart below). I cleaned up the chart some to show you what taking two targets would look like, but I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything moving past $230. IE: 1 target at .382 recommended.

The pattern becomes invalid once price extends beyond 'X' and stop should be placed just below around $214.87, based on your acceptable level of risk.
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soap ninjabenja
2 years ago
Thank you!
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ninjabenja PRO soap
2 years ago
Hmm, looks like we could end up short changing the bat pattern completion. This Cypher was a sleeper and seems to have helped create a buy zone. If we do continue upwards we'll miss out on the bullish trade but targets will be a great place to re-short.
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UPDATE: After more waffling than was expected, we just tagged our target #2!
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soap ninjabenja
a year ago
Sell now?
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blackswan
a year ago
there is still upside left before price dives. i'm looking to short at 240 area..
+1 Reply
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