BTC possible retrace

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Price is oscillating around .382 level forming an Elliot ABC flat correction . Unless the price is able to break through previous support around 6500 the downtrend should continue. The next support is around trend line + .618 level around 4800-5000.

There is a chance that the correction transforms into a WXY if the price retraces from 5600. The result remains the same though.


Considering the recent flat correction, this pattern is not valid any more.
See alternative wave count:


Now, with this pullback in place, BTC has the required power to break through the resistance around 6630 which would invalidate this pattern. RSI confirms it can happen.

If it happens, we must still monitor the 7000-is level, since this whole bullish leg can turn into a bulltrap.
If it doesn't happen, ABC correction will continue.
I see W bottom
GoteGuru bonesso
@bonesso, Sure. Look for the resistance. if it breaks it's a good W bottom! :)
already got double bottom at 5.4k... so now 4800 only in a dream
GoteGuru dobrovan
@dobrovan, yes, maybe. However EWT says other ways. Double bottom is not magic sword, you can find "double bottoms/tops" in every flat correction, still, they are continuation patterns. At larger scale, we have a correction without C leg. Further correction absolutely possible.

However, if the price pushes over the resistance mentioned above, this pattern will become invalid. It's my pure technical point view, without bias or dreaming. Might be correct or wrong, of course.
dobrovan GoteGuru
@GoteGuru, what about now?
GoteGuru dobrovan
@dobrovan, I would say the patter is still valid. I was expecting price reversal at SMA100+trendline. It was broken, but not with force. Maybe trading bots are collecting pending stop losses. It's not uncommon :) Double resistance at 0.5 of current bearish swing + triangle extension has stopped the price, however I'm more cautious now. If we experience bullish price reversal before 6250 (.328 of current bullish reversal which should be wave C ) the double bottom price reversal *might* be valid.

Examining the micro-sturcture of the waves, I would say it is still 3-3-5 ABC. It's not the right time if you want to buy BTC.

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