Previous chart showed the bear scenario down to 3K, but the timing of the next selloff was being held up while BTC broke down out of its rising wedge and mostly went sideways. This is great for local chop swings, but confuses the hell out of those expecting BTC to move with volume based on only its own TA patterns. Thing is, the recent selloff impulse that we're now rising from *happened entirely in response to the the stock market* -- so for the time being, BTC is following in this dump dance, not leading. We're correlated, get over it 😜
Given these conditions - for the first time in my crypto career I decided to chart DJI, which is in a perfect rising wedge heading for a .618 retrace. Until major indices dump with force, BTC is without a guiding impulse, so bulls are taking advantage short-term. My original projection of us falling from this rising channel/wedge/whatever and landing near $3333 still stands, but I'm currently long from $6600 and will TP at $7450 and $8080. I'll be fully short by 8K, but again - we're at the mercy of global market action, this bulltrap will simply stack a bunch of fat wick-chasing bids for us to dump into with force when stocks decide to plummet again.
We popped the ceiling of the down channel that had been tested multiple times, validating the short-term forecast for more bull. That leaves us a whiplash weekend to hit our peak. My current estimate for any big stock moves to provide impulse dump is next monday, april 20th at the earliest.
Previous chart with possible bat/crab harmonics aren't as good a fit for this final bulltrap scenario, but *does* make for a great ABCD
Yes, I'm still a crusty old bear - but I have no problem riding a bulltrap for short-term profits and opening an even higher short position 😉
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If you're watching BTC charts to know when the big dump is coming, you're going to get faked. Watch this chart instead. And look - our dance leader is currently heading up from here 😉
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expecting squeeze spike to 7550 then consolidate 7200-7300 before push to 8K this weekend
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lots of building pressure, bulls have held on top of the old channel. futures markets already showing a jump. Expect overshoots on usual targets, would not be suprised to see an exhaustion spike right out the top of channel to 8400 before this is over
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bullish creep continues, right up the underside of the channel median. We just keep popping ceilings (with low volume), setting up the scene for a big squeeze bulltrap. Might have a short retrace here, but only to 6950 to retest the top of the downline we popped.
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still climbing on low volume, not much impulse, just inverse gravity 😉. local channel levels flattening out too as we transition from the steep initial rebound wedge to rounding out the peak. likely retrace to 6950 for the next 24 hours, when CME futures opens, which will probably provide the fuel for next rally to 7800-8000. Then we shall see what the markets bring us monday
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or we could just rally without retrace, pretty typical 😂 bulls not giving bears a breath in the sideways until external dump impulse finally smacks them down
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price refusing to go anywhere but right back to last close of CME futures, which open in three hours. If futures decide to take off, everyone will follow, so the retrace might only go to 0.382 -- 6950 might be last chance for bids
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early monday morning, stocks dumping, so do we finally get enough gravity to get off this endless creeping bull line for a well-deserved retrace?
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target hit, all my stretch bids filled, rocket refueled, bulls you may continue
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absolutely perfectly retest of the top of the downtrend channel. Markets are freaking out about OIL going negative, but bitcoin is still in bull formation, at least until stocks decide to take another nosedive
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update on the previous chart, road to 8K and then down
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Pump showed up as expected and broke all the downward ceilings, and the cloud. Still riding longs all the way to 8200-8400
Very nice analysis as always. One of the few on this website that actually makes sense.
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The recent rally in stocks is a game of chicken, let's see who is the first to capitulate and send it spiraling down. I am going to call it: it will happen before the end of may, once more and more macro economic data is starting to paint a very ugly picture for us all. When that data (which takes time to collect and prepare) starts telling the truth about global economic impact of covid19, it will become impossible to stay fearless for most, and traders will flee to cash and abandon stocks.
So if you are not a day trader I think the smart thing to do is sell your positions in the coming week, take a nice little break from it all, prepare for rock bottom, then step back in.
Of course others will tell you it's impossible to time that and you should just hold on, this crisis will pass and we will all come out stronger in 2021 once recovery started.
Well, that's what I love about investing, there really isn't a right or wrong, just green or red numbers. They will tell the story. I made 65K in the past 2 weeks trading blue chip stocks during crisis time spending just 30min a day on
trading next to my fulltime job which is secure and I am not dependent on my stock trades for a living. I am now 75% in cash since 3 days. I like to be early in and early out. Less stress, less risk, less detriment to my health. I don't need the money but I sure love winning.