rough outlook for 2016

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
203 0 3
follow the violet arrows which indicate the trend. the purple and red arrows are corrections or short term trends. the end 2016 price level is just a guess which may also be 800 or 4000. A target prize level far below that is unlikely due to the reasons below ..

as before it is clear that the market cap is a result of the global Bitcoin activity or number of users and transactions. Speculation follows and emphasizes the trend.

for 2016 I expect two events:
(1.) the blocksize debate will solve itself under the pressure of rising tx numbers. That will create a lot of trust into Bitcoin and leads to increasing adoption
(2.) the blockhalving event will incentivize growing miner activity until 06/15. That automatically leads to higher prizes because it becomes obvious how limited the supply of Bitcoin is.
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