yesterday we breached the support level of 3750 completely, despite bulls try to defense the bottom line 3650 but less volume follows up. We might entered the final capitulation phase. Take the neckline 3750 as a pivot, we have roughly 700 dollars movement upwards. simply playing the maths we would like to find some support at around 3050 region with a possible wick under 3000 (likely to be 2800-2900), This is the my personally target for the downtrend since 6600. it may takes some time to accomplish. don't fooled by the bulls, we are not reaching the accumulation phase just yet. it's just cool down of the indicator for the moment, we are likely to see a pump towards 3500+ and then more downside movements.
There is no bulls fooling, the bulls entering now is big money long term holders, they can't accumulate everything at the bottom they need to start accumulating now, no "exit capitulation pump" is comming the accumu phase is already live.
creedyincredible
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@Crypapi, well, you can assume that happens which have no problem with me, I am a scalper + swingtrader , to me this downtrend hasn't finished yet. i am not yet ready to enter a long position before I see enough evidence pro bulls like short squeeze etc.
Crypapi
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@creedyincredible, all good I'm not telling what you should do or not I'm sharing my thoughts of the market atm. Im sure you can hit lower entries
creedyincredible
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@Crypapi, sure. to me the we might have 10% more downside to go and 30-40% bounce soon.
ethhunter
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We are squeezing soon, and as you said, accumulation is already happening. We are holding long term for now, with a horizon of 3-5 years. 2018 will be the year when smart fish became whales.
creedyincredible
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@ethhunter, lol, nice that you have plans. surely you have your own setup,the bounce or bull run follows up will be a feast...
ethhunter
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@creedyincredible, BTW your chart is blank for me.
Anyway intraday or daytraders are one thing, you can make money there, but with a long term vision you can create generations of wealth.
I think noone is expecting BTC to go to 50k in 1 month or even 1 year - but EVERYONE is expecting BTC to 1k now.
If you look at the very smartest investors of all time, they had made their fortune during bear markets, usually they never even caught the very bottom of the stock or commodity, they held through strong of the rest of the bear market and got heavily rewarded.
Conclusion: BTC may go to 1.5k-2.5k it's entierly possible but when a short squeeze happens and all the positions get's closed, you won't be able to get the same prices for a long while.
The people waiting for the 'bottom' - because of greed or fear, are the ones that will be left behind and probably FOMO.
creedyincredible
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@ethhunter, sure, thanks for your tips. Well, to me there's a chance the market is not getting back anymore as there's a current degraded trend of btc hash power, i will spend a reasonable amount of money to dollar cost averaging, but majorly play this market like I do for everything else, just hunt for the volatility.
ethhunter
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@creedyincredible, DCA is smart. Volatility is back, good sign, it means it won't only be volatile favoring bears. Hashpower will solve itself, as difficulity and competition gets lower when price drops, it will adjust naturally. Problem is that many are still mining at a loss willingly so, so difficulity is still not on par with other movements. I have been around since the very beginning of this market, i sold first bear markets and I would have been in a better position today if I didn't. Now I know the name of the game and this run i came out very strong...
All these "this time it's different" memes... Yeah, don't buy into the hype of the bears, they are fat and happy right now just like the bulls were last year and we know how that ended :)
creedyincredible
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@ethhunter, lol, just hope all the best, I enter the crypto market since 2017 and luck enough to witness the bull market. But didn't have a chance to see the real bear market yet.
Hopefully the history repeats itself and i would be more than appreicated if it does :). Btw i have adjusted my chart properties and everything should be allright with my next post!