A look at RSI and Market consolidation

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The RSI indicates that BTC has been oversold for the last while. When the RSI stays well below 50 for a while it is, in general, a good time to buy. The way this has played out in the past is that the best time to buy was as the RSI shot downwards quickly following a sustained period well below 50 (I've highlighted some previous cases for you to look at, where the right side of each rectangle I've overlayed on the rsi was a good buy point). In addition, the 200-day moving average has in general been a strong resistance point for BTC and is now being tested along with 9k. If BTC falls below the 200-day moving average it could result in some panic selling followed by a bounce back to 10k levels. I expect the bounce back because it would fit in perfectly with previous RSI trends as the sell-off would cause a sharp move down in the RSI that has corresponded to a bounce back in the past.

Markets go through periods of volatility and consolidation, and it looks like the market is due to move back towards consolidation. The blue lines indicate levels within which I expect BTC to consolidate, eventually arriving between 0.5 and 0.386 fib retracement levels. Since history tends to repeat itself (based on 2014 we saw the prices retrace back to below the 0.236 fib levels) I have indicated my long-term expectation for BTC is $5800, this a support level from earlier months that is just below the 0.236 retracement. Before that happens I expect market consolidation, it is well over due, and we will break out of the upperbound in the downward channel indicated by many other analyses.

The other possibility, and it is a likely one, is that we do not break the 200MA and 9k and instead see consolidation somewhere below the upper blue line. Though further data would be required to find the lower resistance line for that wedge .

I'm not a professional. This is not advice for you to buy or sell. These are just my thoughts and speculations.

Kind Regards,
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