The larger bearish trend appears to have won out yet again, with price slumping away from what was a half hearted attempt by bulls this past month. On the horizon is this beautiful bullish Gartley and even now price is curling in towards 'D' point completion at just above $180.
I tend to post quite a few screen shots to TradingView chat. These are made up of more "spit-ball" ideas not typically worth/worthy of publication. However, I wanted to share one since it's relevant to the implications on this chart.
Here we see prior instances of consolidation on a weekly scale. Shown circled are three consecutive weeks of price consolidation, yielding lower with each new candle close. Of note is the sharp sell-offs which have followed. We are now emerging from the sixth such consolidation, this time lasting 4 weeks. RSI illustrates clearly where we have broken bullish momentum in previous circumstance and in each instance the end result being a new lower low.
Trade Plan: Short to 'D' completion where we take profit and await confirmation for a long entry. Typical targets on a gartley pattern are .382 and .618 of the distance XA,. Pattern becomes invalid once price violates X. For more on Gartleys and how to trade them, check this out: harmonictrader.com/gcontroversy.htm
Thank you for these observations, ninja. I consider your insights here very valuable.
JamesBrown
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As to the harmonics, does the potential for gartley exist in the early formation of a (potential) bat, and vice verse, in every instance? I can see here that the potential still exists for either a bat pattern or gartley pattern to complete, but I'm not sure if the ratios work out wherein they always complement each other in opposing directions, like they do here.
ninjabenja
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damn posted the wrong chart... :p just a sec
ninjabenja
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No, not always. In this instance our Gartley 'A' point just happened to come on the heels of a steep sell off. That is what set us up for the bat pattern potential. The bat wants a pretty precise .50 retrace on a SH/SL to get it going. In this case it was short by .17%, but in my experience with BTC that's sufficient. If that much is satisfied, then depending on where 'C' ends up for the Bat, is what will determine the potential for a Gartley. Price could have easily gone lower on the bat 'C' point while still staying valid for that pattern, but it would have negated the possibility for a potential Gartley.
Hope that make sense :p Here's a good example of a solo Gartley:
ninjabenja
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Guhhh... I wish we could edit replies. "In this instance our Gartley 'X' point..." - not A. I think i need a coffee break :p
JamesBrown
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Makes perfect sense. I really appreciate you taking the time to educate me on this. Thank you.