Bitcoin Still too Weak to Break up, Bear Flag

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
There were a few attempts this weak to break, making a bigger correction but so far each attempt has been rejected. There was a decent inverse H&S that failed to break up, triangles that failed to break up or reach targets. We just had a break up earlier today to 5700 that got pushed back down just as fast again. We have seen these failed attempts before each time we dropped back in the low 6K levels, after the 8500 and 7400 drops. Based on this it could continue for a while again, moving inside this range of 5100 and 5800.

So far my scenario is still playing out as my blue line showed, but i expected a different move since i posted the previous analysis. Still on the sidelines waiting patiently to get clearer signs for a good play. Since the scenario of my previous analysis is still in play, i am still using that as my road map. If we would see another move up from here, me might see a lower high forming around 5600. If that would happen, i think the bear flag on the left might be playing out.

Some Altcoins have weakened and some are already making new lows and others are breaking supports that clear the way almost to make new lows. So the alts are still showing the market is not really ready to move up yet. The green and the red are important levels for the coming days. I am thinking about going short, but rather see a better entry, not a quick move like earlier today at the 5650 rejection. If we see good resistance around 5650/5750, i might think about going short. Until then i will be watching from the sidelines.

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To understand my play book a bit better, please read my previous analysis.
Comment: Support broke and we have dropped already, seems Asia did not have a lot of confidence. Now the tricky part is, on the right when looking at Bitfinex, the target of that triangle seems to have been reached already and it has made a significant lower low already. On the left that picture is a bit different, based on that one i would say another wave down could still happen to 5050/5100.
There is bullish divergence in play now, but think it might take a bit more before bouncing up.

Comment: Forgot to say, this Tether difference really makes things very confusing.
When looking at the alts coins, they all broke support of those triangles and most reached that target already, but it's looking very weak and no bounces yet.
Comment: Usually when the drops don't seem to end and there is no bounce it all, the (temp) low could be in. Important to see volume increase at those lows as well. For alts to increase the chances, i would look back to the panic low we had in September. Think that might be a good guideline.
Comment: Made a double bottom on the left, Bitstamp did not want to make a new low and so far the low of last week is still holding. I was expecting a low around 5050/5100 a few days ago.
As mentioned above, Bitfinex has made the move i expected (100/200 points below the previous low) but USD exchanges have not. Had some rejection just now but if the 5260/5300 holds, we could see another wave up, otherwise expect a move like the other blue line.

Comment: Something like this, on the left
Comment: We might be closing in on that low now, bulls are making an attempt now, but could still make one more wave that goes slightly lower. Drop below 5000 could mean something else is going one

Comment: Still no bounce here, so still danger here
Comment: Still no big buys, so from the looks of it shorts still feel comfortable. To get a real reversal, we need to see those big buys getting in (shorts covering). If it doesn't happen soon, we could see another drop to 5000 or just below it.

So if we start to see those big aggressive buys, we there might be a chance
Comment: If they push above the 5200ish, could mean the low is set, but needs to be a squeeze and some follow through! It has to happen really fast!!

Comment: Looked like a basic false breakout and bounce up, not over yet but there is no confidence at the moment. So still very weak at the moment. Think if the 5000 breaks again we could see panic happening.

We need to see Alts bounce up so more first i think. Tough spot now, because if we break the 5000ish, i honestly don't have a game plan ready for what could happen.

Comment: This is what makes me worry a lot, more alts like this one, made a bear flag, indicating another big drop. Thought maybe the bounce that Bitcoin did could push those higher as well. Because if those bear flag breaks, we could see another panic drop that goes much lower. I can't give numbers but could maybe even be towards 4500

Comment: Still no big buys, so chances increase that the bear flag will reach it's target around 4500 today. I did not think it would happen this fast, but there is just no strength. Just going to watch it for now

Comment: Looking at ETH, not getting dumped yet. If these bear flags start to break and drop, it could get very ugly. But with bitcoins last drop the support is still holding. but only a break on the upside could bring things to a safe zone.

Comment: Not good, is about to break on ETH. If we continue to drop AND volume increases, we could start to drop more and more
Bitcoin seems to move in this channel, the bounce it made to 5050 is the third one today that failed completely.
This is a matter of catching a falling knife, nothing yet to pinpoint a low here.

Comment: Open interest on Mex continues to drop, which is a bad sign as well
Comment: Panic dumping now, alts also crashing as well, think a low might be coming very soon, but where, dont know yet. Bitcoin could go to 4400/4600 even
Comment: Had a small bounce up now, but this is very unlikely THE bottom of this wave down. There is no aggressive volume volume with his move up. So most likely we will see another wave down. Could still drop towards the 4500ish.

Alts are showing similar moves, also no big rallies, just the market bears taking a small nap before getting to it again. It looks like a bear flag in the making (wedge) but it could be a triangle as well. But the triangle version is less likely, already at the support of it and the low volume does not really confirm it. So bear flag version is more likely.

There is one other version from my view, that is we do see some volume buying now up towards the 5000, creating steps for an inverse H&S. But bear flag version has the biggest chance.

Comment: Alle the messages waking me up to see this panic in the market. Well, this is clearly panic now. As things are not bad enough already, Tether is dropping ONCE again as well. Making things even worse again.

The bounce we just had is a good one, but they have to go through to the 4600 like i showed in the chart. If that happens, there might be a chance that we have set the low. Otherwise, the hurting might continu the coming period. So volume and some aggressive buying. Bulls need a V shape here

Comment: Looked like it was already failing, but there is a chance again now. A 1K sell wall on Bitfinex just got bought, so that is a start. Need more of that aggressive buying. These could be potential bull flags, but they are ugly, so we need to see some moves up very soon. Need 4600 at the USD exchanges

Comment: V shape chances are almost over already, just no conviction at all. That's why we need more aggressive buying, because this move would not be turned into a wedge or flag. We could see another wave down if the 4300 breaks.

Comment: Close call now, bulls need to step up soon otherwise we can see another wave down to test the low again. Things are slowing down again, that is in favor of the bears

Comment: Everything below those red resistances is still bearish. It's good we have not dropped in a straight line already, but still very dangerous to say we have set the low here.

Almost done writing my new analysis:

Comment: New Bitcoin analysis:


Black Friday sale
+7 Reply
ReallyMe digikv
@digikv, today's Monday
digikv ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, :) If it's so bad now, how will it be in four days?
+2 Reply

Hahhaha :)

ReallyMe digikv
@digikv, Up to 60% OFF
...makes one shudder ;-)
panconpalta ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, CyberMonday
+1 Reply
+5 Reply
The more and more I see Bitcoin dump the more I pray permabears will be right. Worst case scenario here bitcoin ‘dies’ and the whole market decouples. Best case at this point, true capitulation nearing triple digits with a one or two year long recovery.
I’m starting to become at peace with this because it means I still have plenty of time to accumulate.
I just truly wonder why big boys in this space would allow retail to do that. I’m honestly incredibly surprised.
I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see bitcoin have a major V bottom here pretty soon, these bounces are quite pathetic
+5 Reply
kardia deactivatedaccount123
@deactivatedaccount123, I think a lot of it has to do with Futures and OTC trading. They are taking advantage of inexperienced traders. It's not as easy for them to get away with this in the Forex market.
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