So far my scenario is still playing out as my blue line showed, but i expected a different move since i posted the previous analysis. Still on the sidelines waiting patiently to get clearer signs for a good play. Since the scenario of my previous analysis is still in play, i am still using that as my road map. If we would see another move up from here, me might see a lower high forming around 5600. If that would happen, i think the on the left might be playing out.
Some Altcoins have weakened and some are already making new lows and others are breaking supports that clear the way almost to make new lows. So the alts are still showing the market is not really ready to move up yet. The green and the red are important levels for the coming days. I am thinking about going short, but rather see a better entry, not a quick move like earlier today at the 5650 rejection. If we see good resistance around 5650/5750, i might think about going short. Until then i will be watching from the sidelines.
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To understand my play book a bit better, please read my previous analysis.
There is bullish divergence in play now, but think it might take a bit more before bouncing up.
When looking at the alts coins, they all broke support of those triangles and most reached that target already, but it's looking very weak and no bounces yet.
As mentioned above, Bitfinex has made the move i expected (100/200 points below the previous low) but USD exchanges have not. Had some rejection just now but if the 5260/5300 holds, we could see another wave up, otherwise expect a move like the other blue line.
So if we start to see those big aggressive buys, we there might be a chance
We need to see Alts bounce up so more first i think. Tough spot now, because if we break the 5000ish, i honestly don't have a game plan ready for what could happen.
Bitcoin seems to move in this channel, the bounce it made to 5050 is the third one today that failed completely.
This is a matter of catching a falling knife, nothing yet to pinpoint a low here.
Alts are showing similar moves, also no big rallies, just the market bears taking a small nap before getting to it again. It looks like a bear flag in the making (wedge) but it could be a triangle as well. But the triangle version is less likely, already at the support of it and the low volume does not really confirm it. So bear flag version is more likely.
There is one other version from my view, that is we do see some volume buying now up towards the 5000, creating steps for an inverse H&S. But bear flag version has the biggest chance.
The bounce we just had is a good one, but they have to go through to the 4600 like i showed in the chart. If that happens, there might be a chance that we have set the low. Otherwise, the hurting might continu the coming period. So volume and some aggressive buying. Bulls need a V shape here
Almost done writing my new analysis:
...makes one shudder ;-)
I’m starting to become at peace with this because it means I still have plenty of time to accumulate.
I just truly wonder why big boys in this space would allow retail to do that. I’m honestly incredibly surprised.
I wouldn’t be at all shocked to see bitcoin have a major V bottom here pretty soon, these bounces are quite pathetic