If history does not repeat, but only rhymes then we are in for one hell of a ride again in the next few months.
My theory here is that the rises in bitcoin price are not due to any particular news, it is the increased adoption that drives the price through the alltime highs and the unsustainability of the exponential curve brings it crashing back down. People like to find "fundamental" reasons why the price is moving but there is only one real fundamental when it comes to bitcoin, a new uncontrolled financial technology growing in the public domain. Good and bad news is released everyday about/for bitcoin and if you look for one you will find a "reason" but only because you want to find one. Correlation does not mean causation. The relatively small price moves CAN be attributed to news, however the price typically recovers quickly, SR and Mt. Gox are good examples of this. As the price rises rapidly people will be looking for an excuse to sell and will use that news to signal the top, however it is important to know that the top will come and may not be news driven. This time people will attribute this new rise to the entrance of wall street into bitcoin and the crash back will anything from wall street caused it to the a change in tax regulation or trust in an exchange or wallet service dissolving.
The top should be between $5,800 and $10,000 and the bottom around $2000, and the next round should take us to approximately $50,000. After this bubble and crash there should be enough data to predict the top of the next one more accurately.
My theory here is that the rises in bitcoin price are not due to any particular news, it is the increased adoption that drives the price through the alltime highs and the unsustainability of the exponential curve brings it crashing back down. People like to find "fundamental" reasons why the price is moving but there is only one real fundamental when it comes to bitcoin, a new uncontrolled financial technology growing in the public domain. Good and bad news is released everyday about/for bitcoin and if you look for one you will find a "reason" but only because you want to find one. Correlation does not mean causation. The relatively small price moves CAN be attributed to news, however the price typically recovers quickly, SR and Mt. Gox are good examples of this. As the price rises rapidly people will be looking for an excuse to sell and will use that news to signal the top, however it is important to know that the top will come and may not be news driven. This time people will attribute this new rise to the entrance of wall street into bitcoin and the crash back will anything from wall street caused it to the a change in tax regulation or trust in an exchange or wallet service dissolving.
The top should be between $5,800 and $10,000 and the bottom around $2000, and the next round should take us to approximately $50,000. After this bubble and crash there should be enough data to predict the top of the next one more accurately.
