From what I've learned of technical analysis so far, chart patterns have a habit of repeating themselves. These snapshots of BTCUSD just before the Mt. Gox collapse and now seem strikingly similar, and there are similar levels of uncertainty surrounding some of the major crypto exchanges these days due to the ongoing confusion with tether. Do these exchanges actually have the billions of USD that bitcoin is supposed to be worth?
The thing is, the bubble before Mt.Gox went down, was a 4 weeks ride.
This one is crazy too but it's going like this for a whole year. And BTC price often corrected for several weeks along the way. This seems strong to me. The collapse will occur, maybe, but it won't be a 90% drop I guess.
imnotnotjoe
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just happened to come across this. Huh.
SammyNoden
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@imnotnotjoe, Well, at the time I was hoping for a major correction after hitting 10k. In the end, had to wait for 20k and we are back to where this analysis started (BTC touched $9940 just a few hours ago).
josephtse
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I would not put any money on the CME or CBOE exhcange, and I would stop trading with Kraken if CME will be using their feeds/trading engine. Stay away from any exchange that is regulated, try to get your money on Bitfinex through a VPN. Your money is safe there. The whole point is to keep it AWAY from anything regulated/regulated exchanges.
SammyNoden
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@josephtse, To deposit or withdraw fiat or tether, Bitfinex has the most stringent verification procedure of all the exchanges I have used, and it is the one that most people are concerned about because they are at the centre of the seemingly endless tether printing.
stelakis
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I dont see your point (forgive my ignorance but what is Mt,Gox and how are these charts different?). Now, here is the thing, if you think the governments or the fat cats (senators, congressmen, bankers, wallstreeters etc) will let bitcoin or any ----coin to go to the moon while their bread and butter is in jeopardy you are fooling you self(s). All they have to do is to declare bitcoin exchanges illegal or prohibit fiat -cryptocurrency exchanges and then ---coins will worth nothing!! If they will worth something (for real) they will make sure they will get a big piece of the pie....Right now is certain that IRS is thinking how to make up the lost moolah from bitcoiners gains....we can enjoy the ride as long as it will last but thats all there is a fun ride...and kudos to those who can exit first....mind you if the fat cats want "in" they will short the ---coins relentlessly so they can buy it cheap....as they say in wall street: bulls make money, bears make money, pigs......get slaughtered...
AvgJoe2019
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And there in lies the problem. I can see the chairs being set up for the Congressional hearings as we speak...oh look, its Jamie Diamon set next to testify...lol. Be careful Mate! Recall Lehman notice to account holders, accounts frozen, not enough funds...it was all over in 30 days. Total collapse, hopefully this is just noise, but it juat don't feel right. I would love to be wrong.
falsealarm
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Show me a Mt.Gox like event and I'll agree with your position. Today, there is a healthy amount of other sizable currencies to support overall stability, significant opportunities built on blockchain technology. Even if such an event like Mt.Gox took place today, market reaction back then vs. today is expected to be very different.
SammyNoden
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@falsealarm, If, for example, a major exchange went out of business today, I think market reactions would be similar to what happened after Mt.Gox. Normal pullbacks in bitcoin's current bull run have been in the 25 - 40% range, so a trend reversal and pullback of up to 80% is not unthinkable. It's a big 'if' though and it's not something I am predicting or willing to happen. I'm just trying to make comparisons between fundamentals and technicals now and then.
This one is crazy too but it's going like this for a whole year. And BTC price often corrected for several weeks along the way. This seems strong to me. The collapse will occur, maybe, but it won't be a 90% drop I guess.