BTCUSD update:The current candle which has less than 8 hours to close is presenting an inside bar formation. The break out from here can be bullish or bearish and it is up to the market to choose, not for us to "predict".
Based on the current structure that is intact at the moment, the buyers are still technically in control. The recent bullish trend line is still in play which increases the chance of a bullish break out rather than a sell off. Breakout buyers still face the potential reversal zone just above the previous 11788 high which extends up to the 12429 resistance boundary.
Usually when there is a break out, the break out candle closes strong which is not happening. This means it is important to pay more attention to the range of the next candle. If price breaks below 11050, that is a sign of weakness which will be confirmed with a close below 10750 which coincides with the break of the bullish trend line. These signs of bearish momentum can be used as catalysts for lightening a position, or as a stop loss, depending on the type of long trade you are managing.
At the same time. this hesitation may be nothing more than noise, and if the 11500 level is broken instead, that is confirmation that bullish momentum is still in play. This makes it reasonable to expect a higher high attempt which offers the opportunity to let longs run to see if the next resistance levels can be reached.
I do not mention the short side because at this point, the bias is still bullish and shorts, especially on the broader time horizons are much riskier in my opinion. I do not short these markets to begin with, and if I could, I would only short on small time frames which is often not practical.
In summary. the market is at a point where we must take ourselves out of the equation for the moment. It is either going to unfold as a failed high, or break out to new highs which is what the bias leans toward. For my long position, I am looking to buy more, but since there is a hint of a second peak, I would rather wait and see if the lower probability bearish scenario plays out. IF price retraces, it may offer a new opportunity to add to my position. IF price breaks out instead, I still benefit from my long anyway and I will be looking for opportunities to reduce risk and lock in more profit at my predetermined resistance levels. Define your scenarios, have a plan for each one, and then let the market choose. This is what flexibility is all about: the market decides, and you adjust. Our preparedness is how we anticipate, which is much more effective than emotional reaction.
As we can see from your chart, the volume since bitcoin has bounced from 6k zone is continuously falling. It may be simply caused by Chinese New Year Holidays, but is also may be the signal that bulls are losing their strengh. The higher bitcoin gets the less people want to buy it. What do you think about it?
ertha013
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@kazatchek, where's the bear volume then, to avoid any bias we have to consider lacking sell volume as well. What if the bear is exhausted and have overspent their quota on previous levels?
Such a low volume can push BTC price up higher. Think of this as a major downtrend, when the bull stopped buying thus the volume was diminishing during the declines.
Not to add that there's a chance that those bear will be giving up and take their short profits, that will be a big buy too.
kazatchek
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@ertha013, When bitcoin has bounced from 6k lvl, his price was in the local uptrend channel. And all what I want to say is that decreasing volume is a price reversal signal. So logicaly considering the fact that the global downtrend was broken we should be ready for a price drop. That's my poin of view. Thank you for your opinion btw.
Acel
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Im taking the rebound on this one @MarcPMarkets ,maybe that answers your question.
anon541
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Thank you for your time Marc. Always very helpful, and a great read.
TheGush
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As always, we trade on confirmation, not on emotion. One of the most important lessons Marc teaches. Thanks for the commentary!