Bitcoin has been very bullish the past 2 months, broken through several resistance lines (1350/1550 USD) without too much hassle but all this positive volume is slowly coming to an end. Longterm fibs show us that we have hit the 1.618 (1872 USD) retracement and the next stop 2.618 would be at 3030 USD. A few reasons why we first need to correct and stabilize before further upward movement is possible.
1. Still some scalability issues 2. MACD/RSI at top for weeks now.. 3. Hit retracement level, price is up 63% past month so fast movement 4. BTC is losing it's market dominance and is not the only player anymore.
So my opinion and outlook is that we're heading back to 1350-1550 before taking off higher, this will be followed by longer consolidation due to bull run.
Why will Bitcoin possibly not go any lower?
1. Japan accepting it 2. Large media attention towards bitcoin now 3. Halving 4. Investors/traders from other markets are finally getting in 5. Bitcoin has proven it is here for the long game and other cryptocurrencies still have to prove their value. 6. Bitcoin's use is increasing by the day, economic uncertainties (hyper inflation etc.), but also buying stuff online.
Hope you like this idea. Happy trading!
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Im almost getting mad of how often BTC went up again and again, BUT we finally got to a stage where new growth is very difficult. We face 2K psychological resistance where people will short, shown in the chart you can see that if we get another run up it will be non-sustainable and likely crash. The slope is TOO high and our 4H Stoch RSI is facing down which confirms downward movement for now.
Tell me what you think in the comments! I think we are in for an interesting ride.
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Funny that the dump was at the letter I, didn't play out as I posted, but the fractal still keeps those significant point in time. Lets see what happens at X.
Really nice description and chart. But can you give a brief explenation exactly of what is shown in this chart? Perhaps a YouTube video could be easier to explain every single detail in the chart, what the red lines, green lines, blue line, are, sell/buy, why you chose these points for sell/buy and why you're predicting a fall to around 1550 exactly.
Thanks for making this! Hope for more!
TheTrex
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@Galaxies, Hey and thank you! The most important aspects of TA are trends which can be support/resistance trend lines. I use red lines for upper resistance, green ones for support and the blue line can act somewhat as both (depending on downward or upward retracement). I like to use blue boxes to indicate price flags and show how these become shorter (faster price movement within timeframe). Lastly triangles are probably your best friend, they show where breakout is possible.
Sell Buy are all based on previous support levels and trend line support/resistance.
One book I recommend is Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians
@TheTrex, If BTC tanks significantly as your chart indicates, do you believe all alt coins will follow it down or will they move more independently based on their perceived/real value? e.g. What would happen to XRP if BTC fell to $1500. It just fell to 6000, lower than that is crazy?
TheTrex
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@seansandell, Hard to tell, but in general when BTC dumps the whole marketcap contracts.
You23
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incredible chart - I think this is a good case for the future movement. would coincide with previous bubble 12months post halving
Thanks for making this! Hope for more!