BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
What a rodeo it has been for BTC as we enter the new year. Complete opposite of 2019 start which had us at ~3700. Is this a repeat of 2015 & 2016? Time will tell as we progress in this new year.
Over a week ago, we successfully broke through the mid-term downtrend to establish a quite a steep short-term uptrend. That uptrend is now broken and we are in an unconfirmed, steep downtrend which could try to push us further down.

Both the shallower uptrends remain unbroken with the mid-term uptrend being unconfirmed.

There is a good possibility of touching the previous broken downtrend to bounce off it as we approach the critical crossroads where the trend intersect with the LT (long-term) uptrend and the support line @ 7411.

  • We are still in a valid uptrend as seen from the DI+ being above the DI- in the DMI indicator.
  • RSI (not shown) remains rather bullish still despite the most recent push down. Likely to bounce soon in the ~8250 zone.
  • Stoch RSI (again, not shown), looks to be leveling out and could turn in the next 2-3 days. This is not indication of an uptrend by itself but shows promise when looking at other indicators.
  • ATR: Any extreme moves beyond the current average should be taken with great scrutiny. So far, we are within range but an extreme swing down could lead to some ranging as we try to return to mean.

My forecast for the upcoming week is mostly bullish due to the fact that we are faced with a steep trend down which are never long lived. It could still trace downwards for a little while long but I can see a swing back up in the next few days based on the indicators currently.
Any crossovers of the indicators to bearish should be taken as a warning foreshadowing that the bears are ready to make a move. Breaking the LT uptrend is also dire warning to the downtrend to come weeks after it crosses and maintains past it.

If we continue up, a shallower uptrend will be beginning to form which could direct us further up. I just don't see a -51°trend as remaining for much longer.

Good luck and happy trading. Remember, the trend is your friend and your enemy if you make it to be.


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