1. Where we are in the cycle.
If you look at prev cycles, from the date of halving to the top of the run, it's between 12-18 months.
The first cycle was 366 days, and the second cycle was 518 days. That is a 48% duration increase we can use to predict the duration of this cycle.
Now if we look at this cycle, we haven't even reached the ending of the first cycle AND we barely passed the half of the previous cycle.
Again this is just based on duration calculations, what's more important is...
2. Measuring the parabolic movement.
This calculation is based on speed ( distance / time ). How fast will the gains shoot up in what period of time?
- Cycle 1, within the last month of the cycle, BTC went from 198 to 1163 which is a 5x increase.
- Cycle 2, within the last month of the cycle, BTC went from 9806 to 19666 which is a 1x increase.
- Our current month of April, our low is 55441 and high is 63769 which means we are only at a 0.15x increase.
In essence, it looks like we still have a ways to go. BUT this is the most important metric to look out for to determine if the cycle is ending.
I can't predict these cycles with utmost accuracy, but hope this can provide some insight :)
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice and I'm not a seasoned crypto vet. I just like data and I've just fallen in love with crypto.