The double bottom i showed yesterday is working out so far. Inside that W bottom there was also a smaller one created the last few days (purple line)which is almost et it's target around 3420. The other day when i showed that alts were showing some strength compared to Bitcoin for the first time in a while, where i was thinking it might be a sign, has shown itself a bit as well now. The danger i mentioned yesterday for alts, that most were below an important resistance zone, has been invalided by most of them with today's small pump. So for the short term, that danger is not in play now.
However, volume is still very low so there is still a big chance for failure here. While i am writing this a small bull flag on the 15m just broke up but got pushed down again just as easily. But when looking at the alts, they are not responding on this small push down, like they did the past week or 2. Open intrest on Bitmex went up a lot as well the past day and is 470 million at the moment. It is more likely to think this has all been accumulation based on the OI, because it is unlikely for bears to accumulate shorts at a low. This usually happens at higher prices.
Short term it's important Bitcoin' stays above the 3370/80 and preferably above the 3390 even. The 3410/20 will be a first resistance and the more important one will be the 3480, which is the neckline of the bigger Double bottom pattern. On the right i have changed the trend line as well, since it got hit several times, making it more legit than the previous trend line of the wedge i was showing the past week.
Volume is allowed to stay on the lower side below 3480ish, but if that level gets reached and breaks, we really need to see a decent rally with high volume. A volume candle sticking out from the rest of the past weeks. So all the ingredients are here now for the start of a rally, but i would still remain very cautious though, because with the low volume the bears can very easily take over again. I think now it's safe to say that the 3330 level is an important one for the bulls. If we see the bears take over from here again and see a big volume push through that level, it will probably mean redistribution was going on at the 3330/3450.
If this was not crypto, it would have been a very easy standard long since yesterday and today. But i simply don't trust the crypto market, the fake signals happen on a daily basis. The only thing we can trust is volume, as long as it's not there, be very careful.
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Previous analysis: Don't forget to read it to be up to date
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Remember what i showed in the previous analysis, the example for an impulse wave. That means that we have to stay above the green zone now, if that breaks, it means this is not the start of a rally and something else is going on. Meaning it can either drop or simply move sideways again for a while.
On the right we can see the double bottom again i showed yesterday
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This is what i meant with the danger zone alts were in yesterday. So short term, the bulls have made a good step, but far from over. Anything below 3700 is still in favor of the bears.
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I have put the Dec low and the current next to each other, there are some similarities. At first sight, one would say, we are already in the rally phase, but i don't think that is the case. When zooming out it becomes more obvious, but much more important, the volume is not even close yet
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So potential Bart move with the first failed breakout an hour ago is invalidated it seems. So far looking good, but still no volume. A lot of sell walls on Bitmex, which seems bad at first sight, but it is actually necessary. Because how else do we get volume if we don't have sell walls ;) The bulls have created a small upwards trend line now the past few hours, it is really important they hold it. Next thing which is important as well, on the right we can see a daily candle, we want to see it close at least above the first line. A good buy signal would be a close above the second line
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So the Bulls kept their end of the bargain and held the levels as they should when trying to make a rally. Now we can see a bit what i tried to show you lately, how an impulse wave should look like. It can take a lot of differences shapes, but the general idea is that we don't see new lows of correction cross previous highs.
The daily candle is a lot higher than hoped for, which has created a buy signal. But we are still below the 3700ish, which is THE level to break. I don't see a close of the candle happening above the 3700, because if that would happen, with volume, you could go long almost blindly. With the current shape it's bullish, but not extremely meaningful yet.
At the moment already seeing the current bull flag taking a very ugly shape, which i am not liking at all. The bulls need to take over soon again and hold their ground around 3600ish.
Another important thing we should look at, is the fact that the OI dropped a lot during this rally. Showing it was a big short squeeze and NOT a solid rally like we had in Dec. Back then the OI remained stable. However, the OI was much higher this time.
Back then we had it around 370/380 mil with the price starting around 3200 and remained steady around 380 mil during the whole rally.
This time it reached 470 mil from the 3400 price and dropped to 390 and 400 mil now. So it's difficult to compare it this time. Think the current bull flag might give us an answer coming week. So bulls need to be careful because we are still below the 3700 and with these factors, it's not game over yet for the bears.
Already dropped below the 3600 while i am writing this. Bull need to step up soon, not much room left.
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We do not want to see this bull flag become like the one we had a few weeks ago. The one you can see in the yellow circle. Back than the bulls were nowhere to be found seen, so we need to see some pushing back from the buyers. Unless the bull flag completely fails, i think it will go sideways for 2 or 3 days maybe, inside that bull flag. Think a push towards the 3670ish is the minimum we want to see for the coming hours. Then it will be different than the failed one from a few weeks ago.
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New LTC analysis:
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New XRP analysis:
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Still moving sinde of the bull flag. It's safe to say we do not have the same extremely weak bull flag as a few weeks ago, the one i mentioned last update. Of course no guarantee or anything, but so far, everything looks good, Bitcoin and alts. So i don't see any reason to be bearish at this point, just as long as we stay inside of the bull flag
BEars won't have the guts to touch this one. If they do, they deserve what is coming to them :) Cheers!
kardia
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@SpaceCatZ, Unfortunately, the Mount Gox clown still has many coins to dump. It's only a matter of time before his careless hands strike again.
SpaceCatZ
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@rev214us, No buddy. MTGOx do not sell in exchanges. It was all a big lie to make people sell their Btc cheap. So many mental games. They rob people and moving on. You should be happy as a long time bag holder. Now it is your time to shine. Bears will still think that this rise fake as well. People intend to miss when general long lasting trend changes. I certainly did not.Cheer up!
botje11
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@SpaceCatZ, Well they did though, because of the high OI, but they did got what they deserved indeed :)
SpaceCatZ
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@botje11, It is far from over. Of course bears will do another attempt to take this down as expected. That is also to be expected and there will answer much more violently for it as well. But all this negative people will not remember anything about the bear market in a week. So weird and sad at the same time. NExt leg of mega bullish wave will be initiated by xrp :) and rest of the market will follow. But I swear I hear one more person suggesting of shorting this market with leverage, I will lose it.
@SpaceCatZ, hahaha i understand the furstration :). Lets see how this bull flag develops and if we see the 3700ish break, then we can think of other things
SpaceCatZ
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@botje11, Yes for sure.Very important point. Bears are giving 100% though. I am not sure what motivates them so badly. Do they hate crypto? Delusion? Lack of knowledge ? Or simply panic? 3550 is very well supported on Bitmex. Maybe they need to set another bear trap just over 3550 and liquidate shorts once more. Not sure what is the best way to approach this. But I don't buy the Bart idea seems like distant possibility at this point. My personal guess is perhaps kicking some weak handed freeloaders out of the trade now by scaring them at the local bottom then and force them to re-buy at $3700 range instead. I would love to hear your opinion. I need different perspective .
RafaelZioni
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The btc need to break 3 major resistance level 1 at 3750 the other at 3900 and the last at 4100. if not I expect the bearish trend will prevail . I am still long on it I hope it go further to 4100 but we need to see volumes up for this scenario to happen or else it will another sucker rally before big damp. if break 4100 then maybe we get out of the bear dominance ?