So conventional currencies are based around Economic fundamentals. Things like and Growth drive them with Fundamental traders leading the way and Technical Traders like us following along. BTC isn’t a conventional currency, so what drives its price?
I think there are two things and they are having a big effect on the market right now. While BTC is trading very technically overall and has been quite easy to predict if you watch our . There is something that surprises me, something I think needs investigating, and something that may explain what the fundamental driver of BTC is. Each time we put in a new high, and expect acceleration, we get brutal selling. (The red arrows show selling of the highs). Just when we should be pushing up, we come back. Why is that happening so consistently?
I think who is in, who owns BTC , and where they brought is a principle driver to BTC price and especially pullback at the moment. For the majority of last year, wherever you had brought you had made money, and probably wanted to buy more. We have all heard the stories of ordinary people making huge money from BTC . People were fighting to get in and grab the easy profits.
But since December last year its changed.
There are a lot of people who brought at current levels and above, and as price fell they have been trapped in. The choice to sell and take a previously unconsidered brutal loss, or hold and hope for the bounce back. Many who held will tell you its skill, but most of these are uneducated investors who have just froze, hoped and probably prayed for price to come back up. I think each time we put in a new High, we see more of them no longer trapped in a big loss, getting back around breakeven and getting out.
It’s a concern for BTC from two points.
Firstly, there are plenty more still trapped in big losing positions and waiting for a chance to get out. If this is true these guys have been scared half to death watching their money disappear and are going to get out no matter what when they are back around Breakeven. They will welcome us at every level on the way up and will slow the journey back up considerably.
Secondly these guys aren’t coming back. These guys won’t be buying back in latter, they are a generation of BTC owners who are leaving and not coming back. BTC will need to find new buyers to replace them and these new buyers have seen a big pullback and won’t be as likely to emotionally charge in based on greed. I think this will be partly balanced by the number of people coming in to trade BTC . It’s good to trade and not only from exchanges, but on Leveraged Forex Brokers allowing people to trade both ways more easily.
Personally I don’t think this will stop the march up on BTC , but it may slow it. Hope you have enjoyed.
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This is already long so I will post about the second Fundamental in the next few days.
The people who are never coming back are the people who bought at 15-20k and sold at 8k. The guys who bought at 11 or 12k (the prices we have been approaching) will likely sell as you say or put in a stop-loss. However they wont have lost money and will feel confident that they managed to hodl during the drop and 'win' by selling at break-even or with a small profit. These people will definitely be back in the market at some point, perhaps a little wiser!
Regarding the current price move; I think we are likely to bounce in the next couple of hours from the 10400 or 10500 level. We are touching the 200EMA on the 4 hour chart now and this has been decent support in the past. Failing this I see a lot of big support at around 10100 which is an area where a couple of support points come together, particularly the top of the downtrend line from 19 and 17k. I don't see the price going below 10100, the bears already seem to be running out of steam and the lows are getting closer together with reduced volume.
Good luck everyone!