All kinds of bearishness up in this one, Stamp 4hr.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The following ideas hinge on price breaking out of the current set of triangles to the down side. We've got two concurrent triangles, one symmetrical, one descending. It is not scandalous to state that our over-all trend is still down since $650. A symmetrical triangle will break in the direction of the over-all trend 75% of the time, while a descending triangle is always bearish (i don't have a % for that one though ;p). A conservative short position would be to take an entry when we get a break below, close below $495. A more aggressive short entry would be taken on the breakout of the symmetrical triangle's purple support trend line ; somewhere in the neighborhood of 500. This is a higher time frame trade and likely wont dive straight to target.

The trade plan for our triangle break out will lead us right into the first target of $477, which is the AB=CD completion point for the CD leg of our bat pattern . From there we'll be trailing stops to structure on our way to Target 2, which is the D completion point of our Bat, at $452. That level is also a historically strong support and is carried through the chart in faded red line just below D.
Unfortunately I'm going to have to call this trade complete. My stops were hit at 484.75 while in the hunt for target 2, but still a very profitable trade only getting target 1. The market has just been solidly repelled from the $470 level and even if it does continue lower, at this point I wouldn't be able to attribute the move to, or trade based on, this bat pattern. In the meanwhile I'll be watching to see if we've established a new short term trend channel as we climb our way up from $470.
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LastBattle ninjabenja
A second thought about the 'x' position of the bat pattern.
What are the odds that the lows are inaccurate? As it is being carved out by margin calls in BTCe with the price swiftly recovering within hours.
ninjabenja LastBattle
Strictly speaking, the lows (however they are established) cannot be inaccurate. If it were a matter of a fat finger or like that crazy wick on BTC-e that goes down to 102 contrary to all the other major exchanges- then yes I would concede we could ignore that. But for what we were talking about with where you were basing your X point for the bat on your chart - the levels required by these types of advanced patterns are based on very specific requirements and it starts with swing low to swing high X to A. That's not to say that you can't trade it differently, like basing the levels only off the real-body of the candles and ignoring the wicks all together but I would question only choosing the candle body for one point and the wick for another point.
Update on progress. We've encountered some heavy resistance at the 470 level, but it was not unexpected considering the AB=CD completion point. We continue the hard slog down to our final target for this trade at The 453-ish. Stops should be trailed to above structure which at this point looks to be $484.75.
I totally agree!
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Hahaha... see, now I don't know if you're just trolling me or not ;p
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