BTC: Revisit of MA200 likely

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I suspect that BTC's inability to break through 10k decisively means one further big dump towards the weekly MA200, currently sitting at around 6k.

BTC might complete the huge triangle since late 2017 by one last move down to the support line which coincides with the weekly MA200.
However, it could also surprise us and just break through 10k after all in the next days or weeks.

Knowing BTC however, it wants to annoy as many people as possible, and a move to 6k would be definitely annoying to many.
After that, the halving will start kicking in, and become more and more noticeable, therefore pressuring the price upwards, even should the worldwide stockmarket continue to crash.

Also, inflation will rise strongly in the next years, which will also continue to fuel this rally. For me, the scenario to revisit 1200 has become more unlikely, though of course not entirely impossible.
A revisit of 6k on the other hand is indeed possible.

Target for BTC remains at least at 100k in the next years.
Comment: A break to the upside got a lot more likely now. If 10.5k falls, we are good to go for new ATHs.


= PentarhUdi
+5 Reply
W MA 200 (4 yearly MA) was more less bottom in previous cycle but then bitcoin was about 4 years old, so it was then close to its Mean. My call is regressing to the Mean in this cycle as well, which will be between 2 and 3K, though Bitmex massive liqidations may drag it wick a bit lower. Don't forget BTC is an asset coupled with SPX and has seen no serious economic crisis so far. And Covid-19 recession has barely started.
+1 Reply
YarpoleCosgrave gentlycaresser
@gentlycaresser, lol 10 year correlation is - 0.0102
aka the most decouple asset we know.
"Even should the worldwide market continue to crash". Damn, you truly believe in Bitcoin. Let me ask some questions then: So no regression to the mean before new bullrun as in previous cycles ? Not to much confidence in halving while 90% supply is already mined and there is developed derivative market which was not the case in previous cycles?
What is your view on the CME gap at 3.5k?
Keep Posted
nice work...
Thanks for sharing some sanity. A move back to 6K would be calming the FOMO, would give time for a good entry point to institutional investors and would delay the 2021 ATH.
this is what I will follow, looks very solid
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