BTCUSD: Not That Weak? Quiet Market Offers Clues.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: 9616 level was compromised but bullish momentum did not take hold. As long as this market can stay above the 8342 low, it will still have a chance to break higher.

In my previous BTC report, I highlighted the 9616 break out level which is the .382 minor resistance relative to the recent bearish swing. Price pushed it, and failed. Is this a bearish sign? The fact that price pushed through, even though not followed by bullish momentum is still a sign of strength. A break of this level does not guarantee follow through, it acts as more of a heads up. As long as price does not fall below the recent swing low of 8342, it is setting up for a bullish move in my opinion.

Remember if this market was really weak, it would be making bearish progress quickly. This can still happen, especially if a more significant catalyst comes out and pulls the rug from under this price action. The fact that it is holding above the 8659 level indecisively is a sign of strength especially in the face of Goldman Sachs' attempt to talk it lower.

IF the current candle closes in its present configuration ( inside bar ) then what happens next will provide a much better clue as to where this market is going. A break above 9482 will establish a higher low, which can lead to a retest of the 10422 resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing). IF bearish momentum increases, and price closes below 8342, then I would expect a retest of the 8171 to 7239 minor support.

Aren't lower highs like the one at 9900 a sign of weakness? Yes, often lower highs are followed by lower lows, but when in range bound environments such as this, the chances of a fake out are much more likely compared to a decisive move lower. This is especially the case when price is sitting above a number of overlapping support levels.

In summary, as I have mentioned before, when conditions are unclear, let the market show its hand. When questioning the market, valuable information is gathered not only from what the market is doing, but also from what it is NOT doing. Even though this market may look weak to the casual observer, it is not pushing lows which to me is a hidden sign of strength. Don't be mislead by uneventful conditions because more often than not, that is where opportunity exists.

Questions and comments welcome.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

It looked weak to me, then I read this before bed and thought "this guy's smart I'll keep my position overnight". Damn it.
Always a pleasure to read your perspective, thanks Marc!
Wouldn't be surprised if the market goes up. Wouldn't be surprised if it goes down. I'm leaning more towards bullish because this FUD is not even real FUD. But the markets not logical so you never know.
Really appreciate all of your TAs. Contrary to others, you're very informative and skip the bs, which I appreciate most. Thanks again.
+1 Reply
How about that action fellas? Marc any opinion on the movement on this animal. I just started trading btc in early November...what a time to join the ride. Not sure what the early days looked or if they felt anything like this????
What do u think about that
Wise words sir.
I see Btc is acting completely under stress, it is having unhealthy patterns since the double bottom of 9th march.
Then the triple bottom created on March 11 created a good reaction to the upside, but again Btc continues acting in a stressed way with unhealthy patterns.
It is creating lower highs but not creating lower lows, it indicates indeed that it is not completely weak.
It is to me right now in a stand by mode, ready to go up or down, but it might remains too unhealthy to reach above a 10.600 Usd if a potential bull trap had to happen.
stronger then the bears want it to be and weaker then the bulls liking. everyone is afraid to make the move. i feel like we are stuck around 10k for years
Lovely Commentary, Good Sir, Cheers.
Thanks Marc - you make some excellent points here. It makes sense to me that the market would have really dropped far worst than it actually has if the Bear's really had total control!
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