The-Line

Bitcoin cycles: RSI cycles

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
RSI , one of the most commonly used indicators.
Now we can see how, in the case of bitcoin , we can capture long-term cycles with it. First, the RSI needs to be analyzed. Trends need to be identified. In the case of bitcoin , the trend of bull cycles is very recognizable.
On the graph, the vertical green lines indicate the buy, the vertical dirty lines, and the sell points. On the RSI , buy and sell signals are circled separately in green.


Analysis:
In the past 12 years, it has fallen only twice the weekly RSI of 30 in January 2015 and December 2018. These are the best reception signals. The first 2012 RSI reception signal is not a real signal because at that time there was still too little data available to establish this.

The first bull trend started in February 2012 and lasted for 2 years in less than 10 days before the rising trend of the RSI was broken. We use this point for sell. Even if the purchase date could not be established, the point of sell was clearly indicated by RSI .
Although we could not catch the lowest and the top of the exchange rate during this time, they could still pocket a yield of 12,250%, who are now considered bitcoin pioneers.

The second bull trend started in January 2015 and lasted for 3 years for less than 4 days. Here it was already possible to consciously achieve a profit of 4330%.

Currently, the third bull cycle is underway, in which a yield of over 1300% has been achieved so far. There is still time and room for growth in the RSI rising channel based on previous cycles. On the RSI , I outlined in black a possible move that the red arrow completes at an expected point of sell.
If we can believe the trend so far, it will be a day shorter than the December 10, 2018 buy signal. Thus, we can also have a 3-year bull cycle behind us relying solely on the RSI .
The red centerlines on the RSI indicator, support, and act as a resistor. The tops of the previous two cycles on the red line ended the bull cycle.

The RSI bear cycles lasted almost the same time on both occasions. The difference was only 1 week. Based on these, we can expect a similar 48-49 week bear market in the future.


Conclusion:
The location of the last black RSI trend line is not yet certain, more RSI touches are required to validate it. By then, however, it will already indicate the point of sell well.
Take advantage of the trend, the trend is your friend!
Overall, if we rely only on RSI , we can still make a nice profit.
It is filled with admiration over and over again, the natural harmony of bitcoin .

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Non-financial advice. Trading in cryptocurrencies is risky and can result in losses.

Translated with Google Translator

Peace

The-Line

Comments

Great post! Very informative, well thought out analysis, and concisely written without any non-sense. Kudos! 2 questions come to mind - What do you think the bottom will be for the next bear market and when can we anticipate it?
Reply
@manjotsbajwa Thanks! i think when it is below rsi 30 on the weekly view it is a good buy. + if touch the 200 moving averages on the weekly view, it's better
Reply
@manjotsbajwa bottom: hope 50-60K region
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