Now that the NVT indicator is back in the red zone, I wanted to look back at the Bitcoin chart to spot potential topping patterns. I am seeing a likely NVT cross with its signal line by the end of the day (still unconfirmed). And at the same time, I am plotting here the Dinapoli Momentum Switch indicator in search for key correlations. And we can see two potential outcomes out of this event happening when the NVT line was red: a) The start of a significant down correction b) A choppy consolidation period in front of us where NVT would keep flashing red for some time... just to resolve in a significant down correction Either way, the results look very consistent... not even a single time a bull trend has started right after these two factors were in confluence. I'd say it became quite the opposite. Is this time different?
Nice work. The NVT appears to have called all of the major bitcoin tops and bottoms. More traders should be made aware of it. Interesting because it has nothing to do with price action.
reverie153
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@Longshortman, Nvt is actually not a good indicator.
Longshortman
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@reverie153, please elaborate. It's not good at timing trades, but has it not indicated all major tops and bottoms in BTCs history? Go look at the price action on BLX index or Bitstamp on a daily chart with NVT. Look at the correlation between the NVT being in the red zone and big drops in price. If you can't see that I don't know what else to say.
@reverie153, well many think bull market started. The NVT indicator says it has not.
Martens58
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I noticed this yesterday also. I've got another analysis that indicates a down move has commenced that should last 37 to 44 days. This would correlate to the Dec 2017 down move on the above chart ( 45 days ) and the Nov 2018 down move on the above chart ( 35 days ). It's about a $ 2100 move, so that also equals those two moves in percentage terms. Interesting coincidence.
gliderfund
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@Martens58, Interesting thoughts. Have you put together a chart illustrating this idea?
I just took an analysis of past bear market bottoms of each time the 20-day moved thru the 200-day MA, and then took an educated guess that the most likely outcome would be the down scenario based on the NVT signals. The chart above shows my screen and the resulting projection.