BTC is clearly struggling to stay over 60k. Volume have been week because retail is weak both at this price point and due to heavy accumulation by industry/whales/MM through March.
Coming into the end of this bull flag, inside a larger rising wedge. This puts us at odds, a bullish pattern within a larger bearish pattern. So the question is how low will we go and will we bounce off a support anytime soon?
I think we have a few significant supports coming up. The first is the bottom of the macro and very close to the March close- around 59k. That is also an important number psychologically.
Failing that, 58 and 57k had a great deal of activity but I'm leaning towards another drop as low as 55k, where we saw extremely eager buyers from industry previously. This was also where we bounced from on our way up to 65k eventually.
After reviewing possible indicators of a bull cycle top- none of them are signaling the end of bull cycle. Miner outflow remains almost nonexistent. Whales ratio occasionally climbs but for the most part whales aren't presently dumping. MVRV looks healthy. Exchange inflows look healthy. Exchange reserves remain low. All of that looks more bullish than anything.
So whats next? Well we obviously finish the correction. Each correction has been weaker than the last this cycle. Time will tell if we bounce of strong support and break bullish again. I suspect we could range even longer here, much like we saw in March. Alts will suffer a little here initially, but TOTAL2 remains very dominant over BTC. I
think BTC could crab walk a bit here, it doesn't look like a fast moving pattern since MM are mostly sitting this one out. In some ways it may even be related to the mania around DOGE this week- the retail volume on BTC was weak already, and new traders are extremely hyped on DOGE and that was probably a strong inflow of retail money into DOGE that could have lifted BITCOIN. But thats speculation.
Best of luck.
Coming into the end of this bull flag, inside a larger rising wedge. This puts us at odds, a bullish pattern within a larger bearish pattern. So the question is how low will we go and will we bounce off a support anytime soon?
I think we have a few significant supports coming up. The first is the bottom of the macro and very close to the March close- around 59k. That is also an important number psychologically.
Failing that, 58 and 57k had a great deal of activity but I'm leaning towards another drop as low as 55k, where we saw extremely eager buyers from industry previously. This was also where we bounced from on our way up to 65k eventually.
After reviewing possible indicators of a bull cycle top- none of them are signaling the end of bull cycle. Miner outflow remains almost nonexistent. Whales ratio occasionally climbs but for the most part whales aren't presently dumping. MVRV looks healthy. Exchange inflows look healthy. Exchange reserves remain low. All of that looks more bullish than anything.
So whats next? Well we obviously finish the correction. Each correction has been weaker than the last this cycle. Time will tell if we bounce of strong support and break bullish again. I suspect we could range even longer here, much like we saw in March. Alts will suffer a little here initially, but TOTAL2 remains very dominant over BTC. I
think BTC could crab walk a bit here, it doesn't look like a fast moving pattern since MM are mostly sitting this one out. In some ways it may even be related to the mania around DOGE this week- the retail volume on BTC was weak already, and new traders are extremely hyped on DOGE and that was probably a strong inflow of retail money into DOGE that could have lifted BITCOIN. But thats speculation.
Best of luck.