ronfkingswanson
Short

Rinse, Wash, Repeat: the fractal road to 8K

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
(see related ideas below)
Called the 17.2K bulltrap when folks were expecting to unload bags at 18-19K.
Called the 9K low on the second selloff, when folks were clamoring for even more blood.

Now we're repeating the same rebound, retrace, and collapse cycle on this pitchfork . This rally should get stuck under the old yellow triangle bottom, so no more than 14K             . Some will aim for a test of the channel top again (or even breakout to the upside), but bulls are weary of failure, and bears are in a hurry to get this trip south over with (who doesn't love cheap coins?). Expect to see new triangles drawn during this rebound showing how we're going to burst out the top (like the orange and yellow lines did before breaking down last time). Watch the white bear shoulder trendlines , as they provide major resistance (and breakout rally energy). The most recent rebound stalled at 12,800 on that white line (just like before).

Pink arrows show rough sketch of the path to 8K. We'll have bearish Gartleys and Head & Shoulders all over again, fueling the dumps. If anything, now that the bulls have seen the potential for bloody waterfall dumps, I would expect this capitulation to come even faster than I've sketched. Market is getting used to hearing talk of 8K, and everyone will be jumping on board the dump train at the slightest whiff of bear.

I don't usually have a good sense of precise timing for my sketches, and I'm already noticing an acceleration in the patterns being repeated. When folks have already heard the tune before, they're quick to sing it again the second time. But if I'm anywhere close, we should be seeing the third selloff bottom around the second week of February. Notice the RSI low points indicating the local bottoms of each selloff. Third arrow is an estimate based on the sketch timing.

Of course, this is a "bullish" three-drives pattern, where at the end we rally to around the 14K             S/R zone. Expect huge buying volume after we touch 8K, which should rocket us back up to the last triangle trendline , and setting up an inverse Head & Shoulders formation that will finally breach the pitchfork top. (crypto traders looooove H&S )

If my forecasts have helped you, tips are extremely appreciated, and definitely encourage me to keep posting :) PM me for address
Trade active: So as I mentioned, the dumps start coming faster and deeper the longer we're in a bear market, and I've adjusted the first orange floor line to match our reach down to 10K. Time for a rebound, with a pullback guaranteed as we approach the white bear shoulder line once again.
Trade active: loooooots of drama contesting 10K bottom area, but even the weak hands briefly panicking to 9900 just made wick touches that followed the channel lines. Lots of bears clamoring for 8K right away, but we're going up from here. Look at purple arrow on the RSI. All that dumping never pushed us lower than the RSI boundary.

Note: on my original sketch I didn't pay much attention to the angle of the second orange and yellow triangle bottom lines, and they weren't exactly parallel with the first series. So I've lowered them and nudged the pink arrows too (the yellow was basically where orange should have been :P). Timeframes are very hard to predict, compared to price levels, and almost always patterns take longer to play out than I originally sketch. So to those who complain I'm "changing" my diagrams, damn straight I am. Would be a fool not to. I'm trading this entire play, so I want to have accurate updated targets as I go...
Trade active: So on my original sketch, I assumed based on timing, overall bearishness, the yellow diagonal (and some other resistance factors) that any rally from here would max out at 13,600-14,000. Bulls would be hoping to kiss the top of the channel, but would get left hanging (just like all the recent bears clamoring for 8K and stuck in shorts). Such "close calls" happen all the time. But then, just for kicks, I slapped a fib extension to 1.618 on this recent rebound rally, and realized it landed right on the pitchfork channel top o__O Also, the 50% fib is right on the 11,100 S/R level that we're currently wrestling with, which just happens to be right at the first low of the ATH selloff (brown dotted line).

THEN -- someone mentioned some "grades" about to be published by Weiss Ratings https://www.weissratings.com/ -- and I'll admit, I'm not a knowledgeable mainstream trader. I've just been doing crypto since my mining days, so I've never heard of them. But they're 2 hours away from dropping their recommendations, and if I know something about crypto bulls, they LOVE any kind of news that "legitimizes" their favorite coins. Nothing will cause a pump faster than so