For the Macro (Weekly) and Meso (Daily) analysis please check the chart here:
Micro View (4 Hour Candles)
Looking at the 4-hour candles we can see a very clear upward channel that started on the 12th of April. I make reference to this channel in my Meso Analysis (link posted above). We are still well within this channel and as each day goes by we have more and more confirmation of the trend lines.
Since we have had many signs pointing to a trend reversal to bearish on the Macro and Meso views; I am expecting a test of the lower channel line where I have drawn the red dotted line.
If we do break above, we could easily see a new rally starting that would take us above $10k. In the more likely scenario that we break down, the same fib levels as mentioned in the Meso View apply here; the 0.382 Fib at $849X and the 0.618 Fib at $770X.
My Entry/Exit points for this trend break have been drawn in Pinkish/Purple. Once these lines have been broken I will trade very carefully and use tight Stop Losses until the break is either confirmed Succesful or Fails.
Yesterday saw the appearance of a new potential trend line providing resistance. The line (in Dark Red) currently has 3 confirmations but should only be used as a Point of Interest rather than a hard solid line.
RSI is currently hovering between 50 and 60 indicating a very weak overbought status. If we do break down out of this channel I am expecting it reach TSI levels of 30-35 before any major reversal happens.
Since the 12th of April Bitcoin has failed to close below the 55EMA on this timeframe and but has recently been getting closer. Currently the 55EMA lines up perfectly with the bottom of our channel and as such will give that line significantly stronger support. A break and close below the 55EMA will prove to be a very strong bearish sign and it too is something key to keep your eyes on.
Please note:
Many analysts are drawing a different channel (Drawn with Red Dashed Lines in the chart) which I personally do not see as being as strong as the one I have drawn. The reason for this is the low number of tests along the channel line.
With Trendlines; The greater the number of tests the stronger the line is.
Also, I have accounted for a few "Failed Break Attempts" as is normal behavior within these types of patterns. Therefore I am only regarding the Teal Channel as a confirmed channel and disregarding the Red channel.
Nano View (15 Minute Candles)
9 Hours ago (highlighted with Cyan Circle) we tested $9540 and had a reversal. This provided another confirmation for the Red Resistance Line mentioned above. This reversal sent BTC below the 55EMA, then it tested the 55EMA for resistance, failed and over the next few hours, BTC dropped to $9100.
Drawing a Fibonacci Retracement from $9450 to $9100 we can see the potential points of Reversal; we can see that BTC had a reversal at the 0.618 Fib ($9315). As BTC was above the 55EMA the reversal met a support line almost immediately.
In order for the reversal to be confirmed and to continue the movement towards attempting the lower channel line; BTC will need to break below both the 55EMA and the Bollinger Band Moving Average (Cyan Line). Till that happens we can expect some Ping-Pong movements between the Fib, the 55EMA and also the BB MA.
If we do successfully break below these lines, as with the Micro View I am expecting a test of the Lower Channel Trend Line where I have drawn the red dotted line.
I will continue to update the chart as the movements happen and if there are any further clear indications of where the market may potentially move to next. In the meantime, trade safe, use alerts and remember to always use Stop Losses.
LEGEND:
Drawn Lines
Purple Lines offset from trend = Confirmation/Entry levels
Plotted Lines
Yellow Plotted Line = 55EMA based on the Fibonacci number o
Micro View (4 Hour Candles)
Looking at the 4-hour candles we can see a very clear upward channel that started on the 12th of April. I make reference to this channel in my Meso Analysis (link posted above). We are still well within this channel and as each day goes by we have more and more confirmation of the trend lines.
Since we have had many signs pointing to a trend reversal to bearish on the Macro and Meso views; I am expecting a test of the lower channel line where I have drawn the red dotted line.
If we do break above, we could easily see a new rally starting that would take us above $10k. In the more likely scenario that we break down, the same fib levels as mentioned in the Meso View apply here; the 0.382 Fib at $849X and the 0.618 Fib at $770X.
My Entry/Exit points for this trend break have been drawn in Pinkish/Purple. Once these lines have been broken I will trade very carefully and use tight Stop Losses until the break is either confirmed Succesful or Fails.
Yesterday saw the appearance of a new potential trend line providing resistance. The line (in Dark Red) currently has 3 confirmations but should only be used as a Point of Interest rather than a hard solid line.
RSI is currently hovering between 50 and 60 indicating a very weak overbought status. If we do break down out of this channel I am expecting it reach TSI levels of 30-35 before any major reversal happens.
Since the 12th of April Bitcoin has failed to close below the 55EMA on this timeframe and but has recently been getting closer. Currently the 55EMA lines up perfectly with the bottom of our channel and as such will give that line significantly stronger support. A break and close below the 55EMA will prove to be a very strong bearish sign and it too is something key to keep your eyes on.
Please note:
Many analysts are drawing a different channel (Drawn with Red Dashed Lines in the chart) which I personally do not see as being as strong as the one I have drawn. The reason for this is the low number of tests along the channel line.
With Trendlines; The greater the number of tests the stronger the line is.
Also, I have accounted for a few "Failed Break Attempts" as is normal behavior within these types of patterns. Therefore I am only regarding the Teal Channel as a confirmed channel and disregarding the Red channel.
Nano View (15 Minute Candles)
9 Hours ago (highlighted with Cyan Circle) we tested $9540 and had a reversal. This provided another confirmation for the Red Resistance Line mentioned above. This reversal sent BTC below the 55EMA, then it tested the 55EMA for resistance, failed and over the next few hours, BTC dropped to $9100.
Drawing a Fibonacci Retracement from $9450 to $9100 we can see the potential points of Reversal; we can see that BTC had a reversal at the 0.618 Fib ($9315). As BTC was above the 55EMA the reversal met a support line almost immediately.
In order for the reversal to be confirmed and to continue the movement towards attempting the lower channel line; BTC will need to break below both the 55EMA and the Bollinger Band Moving Average (Cyan Line). Till that happens we can expect some Ping-Pong movements between the Fib, the 55EMA and also the BB MA.
If we do successfully break below these lines, as with the Micro View I am expecting a test of the Lower Channel Trend Line where I have drawn the red dotted line.
I will continue to update the chart as the movements happen and if there are any further clear indications of where the market may potentially move to next. In the meantime, trade safe, use alerts and remember to always use Stop Losses.
LEGEND:
Drawn Lines
Purple Lines offset from trend = Confirmation/Entry levels
Plotted Lines
Yellow Plotted Line = 55EMA based on the Fibonacci number o
Comment:
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Comment:
It was brought to my attention that the channel I am referring to in the Please Note section of Micro view is missing, and thus causing confusion regarding the dotted line that aligns with the bottom of the teal channel. (Thanks Keffertjuh)
Here is the missing channel - sorry for any confusion caused
Here is the missing channel - sorry for any confusion caused
Comment:
We have touched and just dipped below the teal trend line as we mentioned and predicted earlier.
Lets see where BTC moves from here.
I have alerts set up for the Pink line - if we break it I will declare full Bear Mode and will put on my bear suit.
Stay Vigilant
Lets see where BTC moves from here.
I have alerts set up for the Pink line - if we break it I will declare full Bear Mode and will put on my bear suit.
Stay Vigilant
Comment:
Good Morning Everyone
I hope you all managed to get a good nights rest.
BTC seemed to follow expectations over the last 10 hours and broke through the Teal Channel line after which it continued down to test the Pink Line.
Once it reached the Pink Line it seemed to do some strange dance on it as if it were a child in school high on chocolate playing hopscotch. It finally got tired and went up to test the 55EMA where it currently resides.
I am expecting us to make an attempt at going above the 55EMA fairly soon. BUT I still expect us to return and retest the pink line again at some point over the next 24 or so hours.
Have fun
I hope you all managed to get a good nights rest.
BTC seemed to follow expectations over the last 10 hours and broke through the Teal Channel line after which it continued down to test the Pink Line.
Once it reached the Pink Line it seemed to do some strange dance on it as if it were a child in school high on chocolate playing hopscotch. It finally got tired and went up to test the 55EMA where it currently resides.
I am expecting us to make an attempt at going above the 55EMA fairly soon. BUT I still expect us to return and retest the pink line again at some point over the next 24 or so hours.
Have fun
