Ok, after loosing 5 digits amount of money and making same i thought. ... What is missing, what am i not seeing. I deleted all of my chart and looked at it, from MACRO view only. No emotions and no double thoughts and no bias at all. Ok that is not true, no one is unbiased.
Why am I doing that? Well i thought, fuck i will short this xxXXxx, last wave. Because hey Elliot waves theory says, there are 5 WAVES allllllways. But what if the last push down is not a 5 Wave, but an ABC correction, than we do only have 3 waves and an impulsive wave upwards ...
Ok, thats why i thought hey ... do you 100% know, there will be a 5th wave down and are you betting 7 digits amount of € -0.14% on it? .... hmm no, so i removed all my orders and wait patiently.
I also thought, i could short this bastard with 60 BTC 2.95% , and make 20% profit, based on Elliot Waves. ...
But again WHY am i doing that? Because always, when something was crystal clear i lost money ... So i thought ... look different now ... and now i am doing ... What do you think?
So if this is true, definitifly trading opertunities ... As always, if you only would know, how the puzzle may look like...
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The bottom is really guessed and based on the full bodies of last bottom. Not counting the wicks ...
I remain uncertain of direction in this market because the market sentiment is screaming uncertainty. That said, I would say with 98% confidence that I don't believe we will break below 3K. I think a realistic worst case scenario would be the 4K full correction many of us were expecting since we started the descent from 20K. However, I think even that is unlikely considering the high likelihood of a strong bounce at the bottom bottom price of 6K or the major psychological level of 5K. If I was going to short it I would wait for a strong break below $7,900 and I would be ready to sell at any sign of a strong bounce once we broke below $6,900.