Bullish breakout or bear trap?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I think about two main scenarios.

1. Bullish breakout. Price will go up and break the trendline . Keep an eye on price action, if there will be low momentum and low volume , there could be a pullback to triangle zone.

2. Bear trap. Price will go down to knock out longs and collect more shorts. However, it won't lasts too long - maybe a couple of days. After that, whales will come for shorters and eat them alive.

There is another scenario that is very popular in some groups: breaking lower trendline and continuation of downtrend to sub 5500 levels (some guys are calling 4000). It's very unrealistic, because there is only 21m btc and it's very rare. Whales need to sell a lot of coins to push the price that much down, and their goal is not to dump, but to earn money. BTC is just not profitable to sell at these levels because it's hard to buyback for a better price. Bids are rapidly increasing with every dip we had in the last month. Asks are much weaker.

So, the best way is to have stop buy orders above the trendline . If there will be a breakout, you will get in. And you will not lose money if there will be bear trap.
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