BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Yesterday I released my idea that BTC was going to have a further pullback. My Idea has not changed, although most people have turned completely bullish . I will paint again why I believe we are not going to have a great push up YET. Every short term timeframe is overbought, need to be reset to have great strength and avoid fakeouts. BTC may even push to the 44500 regions as I was expecting last week (came late) but I do not think will clean break this cluster of resistances YET. DO NOT FORGET I BELIEVE BTC WILL GO TO 58K IN A FEW WEEKS NOW WE ARE TALKING SHORT TERM. As I said I took some profit out on these regions starting from 41 k (this was my strategy doesn't need to be yours). Now looking at the chart, we can appreciate BTC is at a critical point, the retest of the 200 MA. I want to note that we also broke another important resistance which was the cup n handle res as highlighted in the chart. Usually, there are 3 ways a pattern complete its course, clean breakout with strong push without retest (Type 1), breakout with resistance retest (Type 2) and complex breakout with prize reentering the pattern before breaking out and move up (Type 3). I currently stand for the 3rd one, because of the strong resistance we are facing at 44500 (200 MA and 3 months diagonal trendline res). Nevertheless, we also have few bearish divergences also painting on lower timeframes. Also as you can appreciate from the breakout at 55k (50 MA) the price retested the 50 MA support turned resistance before moving all the way down to 29 k. Right now BTC broke the 50 MA perfectly but hasn't retested the res turned supp yet, so I see it coming. I highlighted how I believe BTC will likely move. I am waiting now for reentry on either the pullback or a clean daily candle break of the 200 MA and trendline. If we retrace 37300 is my entry point. SO ALL EYES ON 44500 BREAKOUT. If in the next few days we move sideways I will think about an entry at this level. However, I will update my ideas here.
As always feel free to comment to have a discussion.