Bitcoin Cycle Thoughts Current Short Term / Long Term Position

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Longer term analysis of current market cycle position. Some of the data as to why certain points are used can be found in ideas (see related idea below for more info).

Bulls would probably feel short changed with the current state of the bitcoin "top" - should this current position be the top.

I personally am optimistic of price action however feel Bulls should be tested before further up can be relied upon. We have had a nice trap here which could drag price back down.. from there an aggressive push through the local ATH would set up for further gains.

The upside of this cycle has not lasted near enough time to be considered completed however there is a bear case in play that would see us dip further down from here. Lows in that case are $20k, but I would not rule lows of $12k out. provided there are no black swan events I would consider this the "worst case"

On the best case side, I will look for a blow off top anywhere around $90k as a low end, upwards from there would be extreme but as in the case of the bear view, the case is still in play.

I would look to reduce exposure on any aggressive down moves around £32k, but in general would not be shaken out by a drop below this point. Reduce exposure simply means reducing the risk tolerance slightly, securing some profit and waiting with enough still "in" the space to capitalise.
Comment: The drop in prices today was probably overdue as indicators were showing a correction in price was needed for several days. After 81 days below the moving average we came above it recently only to retest the moving average today. while we would like to see a less severe move the fact it bounced here is reasonably bullish. El Salvador recently made Bitcoin legal tender and overall sentiment should remain bullish. If you want to buy crypto - now might be a good time to do it.